The price-to-cash flow ratio is a financial metric that helps investors evaluate a company's valuation. It's calculated by dividing the company's stock price by its cash flow per share.
This ratio provides a snapshot of a company's financial health and its ability to generate cash. A lower ratio indicates that a company's stock price is more in line with its cash flow, while a higher ratio suggests that the stock price is overvalued.
The price-to-cash flow ratio is often used in conjunction with other financial metrics, such as the price-to-earnings ratio, to get a more comprehensive picture of a company's financial situation.
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What Is the Price-to-Cash Flow Ratio?
The Price-to-Cash Flow Ratio (P/CF) is a metric that evaluates a company's stock valuation by comparing its share price to the amount of operating cash flow produced.
It's a more accurate depiction of a company's earnings because it removes the impact of non-cash items like depreciation and amortization.
This makes the P/CF ratio less prone to manipulation via discretionary accounting decisions.
The P/CF ratio is especially useful for companies with positive free cash flow, but are not profitable at the net income line because of substantial non-cash charges.
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What Is?
The Price to Cash Flow Ratio is a valuation metric that compares a company's share price to its operating cash flow. It's a way to evaluate a company's stock without being misled by non-cash items.
The P/CF ratio removes the impact of non-cash items like depreciation & amortization, which can be manipulated through accounting decisions. This makes it a more accurate metric than the price-to-earnings ratio.
Earnings
Earnings can be tricky to understand, especially when it comes to non-cash charges.
Non-cash charges, such as depreciation, can make a company appear less profitable than it actually is, because they aren't actual outflows of cash.
Equity analysts and investors often prefer the Price to Cash Flow (P/CF) ratio over the Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio because they view P/CF as a more accurate depiction of a company's earnings.
Accounting profits can be manipulated more easily than operating cash flow, making P/CF a more reliable choice.
Companies with positive free cash flow, but not profitable at the net income line, benefit from using the P/CF ratio.
For example, depreciation is added back to the cash flow statement to reflect that it's not an actual outflow of cash.
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Calculating the Price-to-Cash Flow Ratio
Calculating the Price-to-Cash Flow Ratio is a straightforward process that involves a few key steps. The P/CF multiple is calculated by dividing the current share price by the cash flow per share.
To calculate the cash flow per share, you can use the trailing 12-month cash flows generated by the firm, divided by the number of shares outstanding. This value is then used to calculate the P/CF ratio by dividing the share price by the cash flow per share.
For example, if the average 30-day stock price of a company is $20, and the firm has generated $1 million in cash flow over the last 12 months with 200,000 shares outstanding, the cash flow per share would be $5 ($1 million ÷ 200,000 shares). The P/CF ratio would then be $20 ÷ $5, which equals 4.
Alternatively, you can calculate the P/CF ratio by dividing the market capitalization by the operating cash flow over the previous 12 months. This approach is illustrated in the following table:
The P/CF ratio can also be calculated using the share price approach by dividing the latest closing share price by the operating cash flow per share. This approach is useful for confirming the accuracy of the P/CF ratio calculation.
In addition, it's worth noting that the P/CF ratio can be affected by non-cash add-backs such as depreciation and amortization (D&A). Companies with high levels of D&A may have a lower P/CF ratio due to the difference between net income and operating cash flow.
Understanding the Formula
The price-to-cash flow ratio is a financial metric that can be a bit tricky to understand, but it's actually quite straightforward once you break it down. The formula for the P/CF ratio is the market capitalization divided by the operating cash flows of the company.
There are two ways to calculate the P/CF ratio, and both involve using the company's market capitalization. The first method is to simply divide the market capitalization by the operating cash flows, which gives you the P/CF ratio.
Alternatively, the P/CF ratio can be calculated on a per-share basis by dividing the latest closing share price by the operating cash flow per share. To do this, you'll need to know the company's operating cash flow and the total number of total outstanding shares.
To calculate the operating cash flow per share, you'll need to use two financial metrics: Cash from Operations (CFO) and Total Diluted Shares Outstanding. By dividing these two figures, you'll arrive at the operating cash flow on a per-share basis.
It's worth noting that the share price used in the formula should be a "normalized" share price, meaning it's not affected by one-time events or news leakage. If you use an abnormal share price, the P/CF ratio will be skewed.
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Applications and Analysis
The Price-to-Cash Flow ratio is a versatile tool for stock valuation, particularly useful for companies with large non-cash expenses, such as depreciation.
This ratio provides a less distorted picture of a company's financial standing, making it a suitable choice for valuing stocks of companies with significant non-cash expenses.
A low P/CF ratio is often an indication that a stock is undervalued, while high ratios are common for companies in their early stages of development, where the share price is mostly valued based on their future growth prospects.
In general, the P/CF ratio is viewed as a better option than the P/E ratio due to the difficulty of manipulating cash flows compared to earnings.
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Applications
The price-to-cash flow ratio is a valuable tool for stock valuation, particularly for companies with large non-cash expenses. This makes it a perfect choice to value the stocks of companies that have high depreciation expenses.
A low P/CF multiple indicates that a stock is undervalued. Companies with high P/CF ratios often have high growth prospects.
The P/CF ratio is viewed as a better option than the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio because a company's cash flows are harder to manipulate than its earnings.
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Comparative Analysis
In comparative analysis, it's essential to consider the P/CF ratio in relation to the P/FCF ratio. A P/CF of five doesn't reveal much useful information without knowing the industry and firm's life stage.
A good P/CF ratio is one that's comparable to the industry average, but a low ratio can be attractive for a small biotech startup. You'll want to compare a company's P/CF ratio to that of its peers.
The P/E ratio is another important metric to consider, with a good ratio typically falling between 20 and 25. The lower the P/E ratio, the better, but it's essential to compare apples to apples within the same industry.
A P/CF ratio may be unattractive for an established slow-growth insurance firm, but a low P/FCF ratio can be a buying opportunity. You'll need to assess the P/CF and P/FCF ratios in the context of the industry and the company's life stage.
In relative value analysis, a list of comparable companies is necessary to form a comparison benchmark. This allows you to determine if a company is trading at a cheap price relative to its cash flows.
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Key Concepts and Considerations
The price-to-cash flow (P/CF) ratio is a key metric for evaluating a company's stock value. It measures the price of a company's stock relative to how much cash flow it generates.
There are multiple ways to calculate cash flow, but free cash flow is the most comprehensive. This is because it takes into account a company's operating cash flow and its ability to generate cash from its operations.
To gauge whether a company is under- or overvalued based on its P/CF multiple, investors need to understand the industry context in which the company operates. This is because the ideal value of the ratio depends on the industry and stage of development in which a company operates.
A low single-digit P/CF ratio often indicates that a company is undervalued, while a higher ratio may suggest that the company is overvalued. However, there isn't a single definitive number that characterizes an ideal P/CF ratio.
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Here are some general rules for interpreting the P/CF ratio:
- Low P/CF Ratio: The company's shares could potentially be undervalued by the market – but further analysis is required.
- High P/CF Ratio: The company's share price could potentially be overvalued by the market, but again, there might be a particular reason as to why the company is trading at a higher valuation than peer companies. Further analysis is still required.
The P/CF ratio is most useful for evaluating companies that have positive operating cash flow but are not profitable on an accrual accounting basis due to non-cash charges. This is because the ratio takes into account a company's ability to generate cash from its operations, rather than just its net income.
Cash flow multiples provide a more accurate picture of a company than earnings or sales multiples, as they are less susceptible to manipulation. However, the P/CF ratio has some minor pitfalls, including the potential for different types of cash flows to be used in the calculation.
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Calculation Example
Let's calculate the price-to-cash flow ratio using a real-life example. Suppose we have a company with a 30-day average stock price of $20 and a trailing 12-month cash flow of $1 million, with 200,000 shares outstanding.
The cash flow per share is calculated by dividing the total cash flow by the number of shares outstanding, which gives us $5 per share.
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To calculate the P/CF ratio, we divide the stock price by the cash flow per share: $20 ÷ $5 = 4x.
Alternatively, we can use the market capitalization divided by cash from operations (CFO) approach, which gives us the same result: $3 billion ÷ $750 million = 4x.
This means that the market thinks each dollar of the company's cash flow is worth 4 times its face value.
Here's a summary of the calculation:
Note that the P/CF ratio can vary depending on the company's financial performance and market conditions.
Interpretation and Insights
A high P/CF ratio could mean that growth is expected in the future, while a low ratio might suggest that the company is undervalued.
The P/CF ratio is a stronger predictor of investment pricing than the P/E ratio because cash flows can't be easily manipulated.
Cash flows provide a more accurate picture of a company's financial health than earnings, which can be impacted by accounting treatment of non-cash costs.
Even profitable companies can appear unprofitable due to significant non-monetary expenses, such as depreciation.
Real-World Relevance and Mechanics
The P/CF ratio is a valuable tool for investors, and its mechanics are straightforward. To calculate it, you need to focus on two primary elements: market price per share and cash flow per share.
Market price per share is the cost for one share of a company that you can buy in the open market. It shows how much people are willing to pay for each piece of the company at present time.
Cash flow per share is found by dividing all cash flow from operations by the total number of outstanding shares. It helps to show how much money comes in for each share, without including investments or finance tasks.
To calculate the P/CF ratio, divide the market price per share by the cash flow per share. For instance, if a company's stock is currently trading at $50 per share and its cash flow per share is $5, the P/CF ratio would be $10.
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This result tells investors that they are paying $10 for every $1 of cash flow generated by the company. The P/CF ratio has special importance when weighing companies in capital-intensive sectors, where cash flow acts as an important measure for financial well-being and steadiness.
Tesla's strong cash flow generation in 2023, despite a big decrease in its price, is a great example of how the P/CF ratio can indicate a possible undervaluation. The company's powerful operational cash flows led to a significant increase in its stock price.
On the other hand, WeWork's high P/CF ratio in 2019 served as an alert for possible overestimation and hidden money-related problems. The company's big cash outflows compared to its market worth made investors cautious about putting their money in it.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a good FCF ratio?
A good FCF ratio varies by industry, but a ratio above 1 is generally a positive indicator. However, the specific benchmark for a 'good' ratio depends on the sector and requires further analysis.
Is a lower price to cash flow better?
A lower price-to-free cash flow ratio can be a sign of a company being undervalued, making it a potentially attractive investment opportunity. However, it's essential to compare this ratio to that of similar companies to determine if it's a genuine value or a temporary dip.
Sources
- https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/valuation/price-to-cash-flow-ratio/
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/11/analyzing-price-to-cash-flow-ratio.asp
- https://www.wallstreetprep.com/knowledge/price-to-cash-flow-ratio/
- https://thetradinganalyst.com/price-to-cash-flow/
- https://fincent.com/glossary/price-to-cash-flow
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