The USD Pound exchange rate has been a hot topic lately, especially with the ongoing Brexit saga. The uncertainty surrounding the UK's departure from the EU has caused significant fluctuations in the currency market.
The Pound has historically been one of the most volatile currencies, and Brexit has only added to its instability. A no-deal Brexit could lead to a 10-15% decline in the Pound's value against the US dollar.
As the Brexit deadline draws near, investors are getting nervous, and the Pound is taking a hit. The currency has already dropped by 5% in the past month alone.
The Pound's value is closely tied to the UK's economic growth, and a no-deal Brexit could lead to a recession, further weakening the currency.
GBP Forecast
The GBP forecast is looking a bit uncertain, with some analysts predicting a slight decline in value over the next quarter.
Historically, the pound has been known to fluctuate in response to changes in the UK economy, particularly in regards to inflation and interest rates.
According to our data, the pound has been steadily losing value against the dollar since the start of 2023, with a current exchange rate of around 1.25.
The UK's inflation rate has been steadily increasing, reaching a high of 10.1% in the summer of 2022, which has put downward pressure on the pound.
The Bank of England has been keeping a close eye on inflation and has raised interest rates several times in an effort to curb price increases.
Analyzing the GBP Chart
To analyze the GBP chart, you'll need to open the Chart module, which is shown with number 1 in the picture below.
This will open the Continuous contract chart without any delay.
To view the pound sterling exchange rate dynamics in real time, you need to connect to exchange quotations.
You can then use this data to make informed decisions about the usd pound exchange rate forecast.
Forecasting
The biggest fluctuations in the GBP/USD pair are a great way to understand how the market can change quickly. One notable example is the Flash Crash on October 7, 2016, where the daily range was 7% and the pound fell to 1.17773.
The Flash Crash was caused by weak liquidity in Asia, which led to a drastic sell-out of the pound. This resulted in automatic stop losses and robot actions, causing the pound to fall for several minutes before recovering.
The Brexit Armageddon on June 24, 2016, was another significant event that affected the pound. The daily range was 12%, with the pound falling from 1.50 to 1.33 in just a few hours.
The pound's biggest one-day sell-out was a result of the news about Great Britain's exit from the European Union. This event led to a sharp reduction in activity and put Great Britain at the threshold of recession.
To forecast the GBP/USD dynamics during a day, we recommend using the trading volume analysis method. This method can be applied to many instruments, including the 6B futures.
The trading volume analysis method can help you understand the market's behavior and make more informed decisions. By analyzing the trading volume, you can identify trends and patterns that can help you predict future price movements.
The Black Wednesday on September 16, 1992, was another significant event that affected the pound. George Soros placed a big bet against the pound and won, leading to the pound's exit from the European exchange rate mechanism.
The pound's performance during the 2008 financial crisis was also significant. The GDP data showed a sharp reduction in activity, and the pound fell by 25% for the year.
GBP and Brexit
GBP and Brexit is a major factor in the pound's performance, with Theresa May and her Cabinet outlining the UK's Brexit plan this week. This could impact the pound significantly.
UK inflation edged higher last week, coming in at 3.1% on the year, almost the highest figure for six years. This could be a concern for the Bank of England.
Brexit talks have moved onto trade, but sterling slipped when Michel Barnier announced that the path ahead in trade talks might be difficult. This uncertainty will likely prevail until a conclusive final agreement is reached.
UK retail sales showed an upswing in November, rising by 1.1% on the month and 1.2% on the year, bolstered by Black Friday Sales. However, this might not be enough to offset the impact of Brexit on the pound.
Party disputes have been made public, and Boris Johnson has vowed to deliver his vision for a so-called 'liberal Brexit'. This version of Brexit would see the UK separate itself from EU laws and prevent the UK from becoming a 'vassal state' of Brussels.
Ministers are meeting throughout the week, and developments could impact the pound. This makes it a crucial time for anyone with pound-based investments or travels planned.
Sources
- https://www.mufgresearch.com/fx/monthly-foreign-exchange-outlook-update-november-2024/
- https://capital.com/en-eu/analysis/long-term-gbp-usd-forecast
- https://fxopen.com/blog/en/gt-gbp-usd-long-term-forecast/
- https://atas.net/market-theory/pound-sterling/
- https://www.thinkingaustralia.com/exchange-rate-forecast-gbp-eur-usd-aud-cad-nzd/
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