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US mortgage rates have dropped for the first time since March, marking a significant turning point in the housing market.
This decline in mortgage rates is a welcome relief for homebuyers and sellers alike. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fallen to 6.7%, a 0.1 percentage point drop from the previous week's rate.
For homebuyers, this means lower monthly payments and increased purchasing power. This could be the perfect opportunity for those who have been waiting on the sidelines to finally enter the market.
The decrease in mortgage rates is also expected to boost the housing market, with some experts predicting an increase in home sales and prices.
U.S. Mortgage Rates Drop for First Time Since March
Mortgage rates have finally dropped, and it's a welcome relief for many would-be buyers. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage currently sits at about 6.29%, the lowest rate since February 2023.
This decrease is partly due to anticipation of a rate cut as well as weaker economic data. The rate cut may not result in a significant additional drop in rates, especially if the economy remains relatively strong.
Recently sidelined homebuyers may want to consider entering the market, as housing affordability is improving while inventory is scaling back up. This could be a great opportunity for buyers to find a home they love.
Homeowners with mortgages of more than 7% may also want to consider refinancing into a lower rate. For instance, a homeowner with a $400,000 mortgage could save about $400 a month by refinancing into a loan at today's rate of about 6.3% versus the peak of about 7.8% in 2023.
Lenders generally recommend refinancing when it's a difference of 1 percentage point or more.
Housing Market Trends
Housing prices in the U.S. have been on a wild ride, with a seven-month decline in 2022 and early 2023, but then recovering to new record levels in late 2023.
Homebuyers are still dealing with the dual challenges of persistently elevated mortgage rates and rising home prices.
Existing home sales are up, with November's sales jumping 4.8% from the prior month, marking the second consecutive month of gains.
This is encouraging news, but from a historical perspective, housing activity remains low.
New home sales also rebounded in November, rising 5.9% from October and 8.7% higher than a year earlier.
The housing market is still facing obstacles, including lagging existing home inventory and higher mortgage rates, which are making people in homes with low mortgage rates hesitant to move.
Home affordability remains a problem, with rising home prices and elevated mortgage rates making it difficult for people to buy homes.
The need for more homes is pressing, and experts are calling for a healthy housing market to require more homes to be available.
Market Impact
The market impact of the recent drop in US mortgage rates is a big deal. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 3.75% for the first time since March, making it a great time to buy or refinance a home.
Homebuyers and refinancers are taking advantage of the lower rates, with mortgage applications increasing by 4.3% last week alone. This is a significant boost to the housing market, which has been sluggish in recent months.
The lower rates are also expected to benefit the overall economy, with the Mortgage Bankers Association forecasting a 10% increase in home sales this year. This could lead to more jobs and economic growth.
As a result of the rate drop, many homeowners are considering refinancing their mortgages to take advantage of the lower rates.
Mortgage Rate Cuts
Mortgage rates have been on the rise, but recent cuts may bring relief to some homebuyers. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage currently sits at about 6.29%, the lowest rate since February 2023.
This drop is partly due to anticipation of a rate cut and weaker economic data. However, the rate cut may not result in a significant additional drop in rates, especially if the economy remains relatively strong.
Homebuyers who were previously priced out of the market may find it's a good time to enter the market, as housing affordability is improving and inventory is scaling back up. This could give buyers more choices.
Homeowners with mortgages of more than 7% may also want to consider refinancing into a lower rate, which could save them hundreds of dollars a month. For example, a homeowner with a $400,000 mortgage could save about $400 a month by refinancing into a loan at today's rate of about 6.3% versus the peak of about 7.8% in 2023.
Home Shopping and Affordability
Existing home sales have been showing some encouraging signs, with a 4.8% jump in November from the prior month, and a 6.1% increase for the year-over-year period since June 2021.
This is a welcome relief for the housing market, which has been struggling with low inventory and affordability issues. Higher rates are making people in homes financed with low mortgage rates reticent to move, which is adding to the inventory problem.
Home prices are still sky-high nationwide, and demand for housing still outstrips supply, making it tough for many buyers to afford a home. Purchasing a home is out of reach for many buyers, especially those with low incomes living in areas seeing fast price growth.
However, lower mortgage rates may help improve affordability. Borrowing costs are poised to drop further this year, and economists believe the worst for the housing market may already be in the rear-view mirror.
Houses Are Increasing in Supply
More houses are coming onto the market, which is a welcome change for homebuyers.
Total housing inventory has increased every month this year so far, registering at 1.32 million units at the end of June, up 3.1% from May and a stunning 23.4% higher from a year earlier.
This increase in inventory is a result of more homes being built, especially in areas like Tampa, Denver, and Minneapolis, which have seen a considerable pickup in residential construction over the past year.
The median price of a previously owned home in the United States rose to $426,900 in June, but the increased supply may eventually lead to lower prices.
Homes have become so expensive in recent years that the number of US cities where first-time buyers face a $1 million price tag for an average, entry-level starter home has nearly tripled since 2019.
However, the increased supply may eventually entice more buyers to enter the market, especially with lower mortgage rates and a bigger housing stock.
Sources
- https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/investing-insights/interest-rates-impact-on-housing-market.html
- https://www.habitatmag.com/Publication-Content/Co-op-Condo-Buyers/2024/August-2024/mortgage-rates-drop-coop-condo
- https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-cut-rates-money-impacts/
- https://www.deseret.com/business/2024/05/09/average-mortgage-rates-decline-housing-market-federal-reserve-inflation/
- https://www.abc15.com/news/national/mortgage-rates-plunge-to-lowest-level-in-more-than-a-year
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