Mortgage rates have fallen back below 7, and this change has a significant impact on the housing market. According to recent data, this drop in rates has led to a surge in refinancing activity.
Homeowners are now taking advantage of the lower rates to refinance their existing mortgages, which is expected to save them thousands of dollars in interest payments over the life of the loan.
Current Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates have fallen back below 7, and it's a great time to consider buying a home or refinancing your current mortgage.
The average 30-year mortgage rate is now 6.94%, down from a recent high of 7.08%. This is a significant drop, and it's a great opportunity for potential homebuyers to secure a lower interest rate.
Rates on 30-year mortgages are still elevated compared to early February, when the average plummeted to 6.36%. However, they are far below the historic 23-year high of 8.01% seen in October.
The current 15-year mortgage rate average is 6.16%, down from a recent high of 6.27%. This is a great option for those who want to pay off their mortgage quickly and save on interest.
Jumbo 30-year mortgage rates have also seen a significant drop, with the average rate now at 6.99%. This is a quarter percentage point better than the 7.30% peak registered in May.
Here's a breakdown of the current mortgage rates:
These rates are subject to change, but they're currently the best we've seen in a while. If you're considering buying a home or refinancing your current mortgage, now might be a great time to act.
What's Behind the Change
The recent drop in mortgage rates has left many wondering what's behind the change. The truth is, mortgage rates are influenced by a complex mix of factors, but one major player is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
The Fed's decision to taper its bond purchases downward in November 2021 marked a significant shift in the mortgage market. This move, combined with the Fed's subsequent rate hikes, has had a dramatic impact on mortgage rates.
The Fed's aggressive rate increases, which raised the benchmark rate 5.25 percentage points over 16 months, have indirectly influenced mortgage rates, making them rise. However, the Fed has now maintained the federal funds rate at its current level since July, with no plans to cut rates until inflation falls sufficiently.
The Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts is largely driven by the fact that inflation is still above its target level of 2%.
Higher Unemployment
Higher unemployment rates are causing a ripple effect in the market. The U.S. Department of Labor jobs report showed unemployment rising to 4.3 percent, the highest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
This increase in unemployment is triggering a market sell-off of riskier investments. People are moving their money to more secure vehicles, like U.S. Treasury bonds.
A higher unemployment rate means lower mortgage rates. Mike Fratantoni, senior vice president and chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, says this will lead to more home purchases and a pickup in refinance activity.
If you have a mortgage rate above 7 percent, you might be able to refinance at a lower rate. In fact, more than half of homeowners (52 percent) say they'd need a mortgage rate lower than 6 percent to feel comfortable buying a new place this year.
What Causes Rise or Fall?
Mortgage rates are influenced by a complex mix of factors, making it difficult to pinpoint a single cause for their fluctuations. The level and direction of the bond market, especially 10-year Treasury yields, play a significant role.
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is another major influencer of mortgage rates. The Fed's bond-buying policy, for instance, kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021.
Competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types also affects mortgage rates. This can lead to varying rates for similar loans, depending on the lender.
The Fed's decision to taper its bond purchases downward in November 2021 had a significant impact on mortgage rates. This reduction in bond buying led to an increase in mortgage rates over the following months.
The Fed's aggressive rate increases between 2022 and 2023, totaling 5.25 percentage points over 16 months, also contributed to the rise in mortgage rates. This historic speed and magnitude of rate increases had a dramatic upward impact on mortgage rates.
The Fed has been maintaining the federal funds rate at its current level since July, with the goal of keeping inflation under control. As long as inflation remains above the Fed's target level of 2%, the Fed is hesitant to cut rates.
Here's a summary of the key factors that influence mortgage rates:
- The level and direction of the bond market (especially 10-year Treasury yields)
- The Federal Reserve's monetary policy (especially bond buying and funding government-backed mortgages)
- Competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types
Tracking and Trends
Mortgage rates have fallen back below 7, and that's a welcome relief for many homebuyers. The national and state averages we track are provided via the Zillow Mortgage API, assuming a loan-to-value ratio of 80% and a credit score in the 680-739 range.
The data we rely on is from reputable sources, including Freddie Mac, Congressional Research Service, and the Federal Reserve. Freddie Mac, in particular, is a trusted source for mortgage rate information.
Here are some key statistics from our data sources:
It's worth noting that these predictions are based on forecasts from November 2023, and actual mortgage rates may vary depending on individual circumstances.
How We Track
We track mortgage rates using a combination of data sources, including the Zillow Mortgage API. This API provides national and state averages, assuming a loan-to-value ratio of 80% and an applicant credit score in the 680–739 range.
The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications. These rates may vary from advertised teaser rates.
We also rely on data from Freddie Mac, which provides information on mortgage rates. According to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates have dropped below seven percent.
Our tracking method also involves consulting the Federal Reserve, specifically the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Calendars, Statements, and Minutes (2019-2024). This helps us stay up-to-date on the Federal Reserve's policies and their impact on mortgage rates.
Here are some of our key data sources:
- Freddie Mac
- Congressional Research Service
- Federal Reserve Board
- Federal Reserve
How Low Can They Go?
Mortgage rates are predicted to drop significantly in the coming years. By the end of next year, they're expected to fall into the mid-6 percent range, according to MBA economists.
Some states already offer lower mortgage rates than others. New York, Tennessee, and North Carolina currently have the cheapest 30-year new purchase rates.
Fannie Mae economists also predict mortgage rates will drop, but not as quickly as MBA economists do. They expect rates to stay above 7 percent next year due to the Fed's higher for longer rate strategy.
States like West Virginia and Washington, D.C. have the highest average mortgage rates, while states like Colorado and Utah have lower rates.
Regional and Future Outlook
Mortgage rates have fallen back below 7, and it's a great time to consider refinancing your home loan.
This change in rates is largely due to the recent decline in inflation, which has allowed the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
Homebuyers can expect to save around $100 per month on their mortgage payments with a 30-year fixed-rate loan compared to a 7.5% interest rate.
The current 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate is around 6.9%, a significant drop from the 7% threshold.
For homeowners who have been waiting for rates to drop, now might be the perfect time to refinance and lower their monthly payments.
According to recent data, refinancing has become a more attractive option for homeowners, with around 40% of borrowers choosing to refinance their mortgages.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the lowest mortgage rate in history?
The lowest 30-year fixed mortgage rate in history was 2.65%, recorded in January 2021. This rate marked a significant milestone in mortgage history, but was short-lived as rates surged in the following years.
Sources
- https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/mortgage-rates-fall-with-treasury-yields/
- https://www.investopedia.com/mortgage-rates-drop-below-7-8657958
- https://www.investopedia.com/mortgage-rates-sink-dropping-back-under-7-july-9-2024-8674653
- https://dc.urbanturf.com/articles/blog/back_below_7_mortgage_rates_fall_again/22346
- https://www.inman.com/2023/12/06/how-low-can-they-go-mortgage-rates-back-under-7-this-week/
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