
Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) rates have been influenced by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, which has kept long-term interest rates low.
The MBS market has seen a significant increase in trading volume since 2008, with the average daily trading volume reaching $1.3 trillion in 2020.
This surge in trading activity is largely due to the government-sponsored entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which dominate the MBS market.
The average coupon rate for MBS has remained relatively stable over the past few years, ranging from 3.5% to 4.5%.
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Mortgage Rate Projections
The Federal Reserve's unlimited MBS buying program may lead to new lows for home-loan rates, similar to the 2008 financial crisis. The Fed's goal isn't to push down mortgage rates, but lower rates are a likely consequence of throwing billions of dollars into mortgage-backed securities.
A 30-year fixed rate of 2.75% is possible, according to Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economics, based on bond yields. This rate is not far off from the 3.29% average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage recorded just before the COVID-19 pandemic.
The risk premium, or buffer, between Treasury yields and mortgage rates is likely to narrow in coming weeks, which could lead to mortgage rates in the 3% range, plus or minus 25 basis points.
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SOMA Agency Portfolio Projections

SOMA Agency's mortgage portfolio is projected to grow by 15% in the next quarter.
Their conservative loan-to-value ratio of 80% will help mitigate potential losses in a market downturn.
This ratio is significantly lower than the industry average, making SOMA Agency a more attractive option for investors.
SOMA Agency's focus on high-quality originations will drive long-term profitability.
Their team of experienced underwriters ensures that every loan meets strict credit standards.
By maintaining a diversified portfolio, SOMA Agency can minimize risk and maximize returns.
Their current mix of 60% fixed-rate and 40% adjustable-rate loans provides a stable foundation for growth.
SOMA Agency's commitment to transparency and regular reporting will keep stakeholders informed throughout the quarter.
This level of communication is essential for building trust and driving business growth.
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Rate Lift Expectations
The Federal Reserve's pledge to buy unlimited amounts of Treasuries and mortgage bonds may drive mortgage rates to new lows.
Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economics, believes the Fed will keep liquidity as high as possible, keeping mortgage rates low, just like they did during the financial crisis.

A 30-year fixed rate of 2.75% is possible, according to Naroff, based on bond yields, which act as a benchmark for mortgage investors.
The average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 3.29% the week before the COVID-19 pandemic, the lowest ever recorded by Freddie Mac in a series that goes back to 1971.
The rate was 3.65% last week, with a broad spread between Treasury yields and mortgage rates due to nervous investors keeping a risk premium.
This margin is likely to narrow in coming weeks, Naroff said, with mortgage rates possibly reaching the 3% range, plus or minus 25 basis points.
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Mortgage Rate Outlook
The Federal Reserve's pledge to buy unlimited amounts of Treasuries and mortgage bonds could lead to new lows for home-loan rates.
In 2008, the Fed's similar move drove mortgage rates below 5% for the first time ever.
Lower rates are the likely consequence of throwing billions of dollars mortgage-backed securities, according to Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economics.
A 30-year fixed rate of 2.75% is possible, Naroff said, basing his estimate on bond yields.
The average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 3.29% just before the COVID-19 pandemic shocked the markets.
That's the lowest ever recorded by Freddie Mac in a series that goes back to 1971.
The rate was 3.65% last week, representing an abnormally broad spread – or difference – between Treasury yields and mortgage rates.
The margin is likely to narrow in coming weeks, Naroff said.
Mortgage rates could be in the 3% range, plus or minus 25 basis points, based on bond yields.
A new low is not impossible, according to Naroff.
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Mortgage Market Trends
The Fed's unlimited MBS buying has the potential to drive mortgage rates down to new lows.
The central bank's goal isn't to push down mortgage rates, but lower rates are a likely consequence of throwing billions of dollars into mortgage-backed securities.
The explosion of liquidity is going to drive rates down, according to Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economics.
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A 30-year fixed rate of 2.75% is possible, Naroff said, basing his estimate on bond yields.
The average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 3.29% just before the COVID-19 pandemic, the lowest ever recorded by Freddie Mac.
This rate is a benchmark to compare with current rates.
The current rate is 3.65%, representing an abnormally broad spread between Treasury yields and mortgage rates.
This spread is likely to narrow in coming weeks.
Mortgage rates could get a new low, possibly in the 3% range, plus or minus 25 basis points.
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Fed's Impact on Mortgage Rates
The Federal Reserve's recent actions have a significant impact on mortgage rates.
The Fed's pledge to buy unlimited amounts of Treasuries and mortgage bonds may lead to new lows for home-loan rates.
Lenders stop pricing in a risk premium when the Fed intervenes, which can drive rates down.
In 2008, the Fed's bond-buying program helped drive mortgage rates below 5% for the first time ever.
For another approach, see: Mortgage Rates Fall to 6.09 after Fed's Interest Rate Cut
A 30-year fixed rate of 2.75% is possible, according to Naroff, who bases his estimate on bond yields.
The average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 3.29% before the COVID-19 pandemic, the lowest ever recorded by Freddie Mac.
The spread between Treasury yields and mortgage rates is likely to narrow in coming weeks.
Naroff estimates mortgage rates could be in the 3% range, plus or minus 25 basis points.
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Rate Volatility
The Federal Reserve's pledge to buy unlimited amounts of mortgage bonds has sent mortgage rates plummeting.
The Fed's actions are likely to keep liquidity high, just like during the financial crisis, and that will keep mortgage rates low.
Mortgage rates have already fallen to historic lows, with the average 30-year fixed rate falling to 3.29% just before the COVID-19 pandemic.
The rate was 3.65% last week, representing an abnormally broad spread between Treasury yields and mortgage rates.
The margin between Treasury yields and mortgage rates is likely to narrow in coming weeks, with mortgage rates possibly falling to the 3% range.
A 30-year fixed rate of 2.75% is possible, according to Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economics, who based his estimate on bond yields.
Check this out: U.s. Home Sales Decline despite Falling Mortgage Rates
Frequently Asked Questions
What does MBS mean in mortgage?
Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) represent claims to the cash flows from pools of mortgage loans, typically on residential property. They are essentially debt obligations backed by a group of mortgages.
Sources
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-evolution-of-the-federal-reserves-agency-mbs-holdings-20240920.html
- https://www.ft.com/content/6ea23cc9-bd3b-49e2-9f25-4734b0daa6f9
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/garthfriesen/2024/01/30/how-to-maximize-yield-and-take-advantage-of-cheap-mortgage-bonds/
- https://www.housingwire.com/articles/with-fed-unlimited-mbs-buying-how-low-can-mortgage-rates-go/
- https://www.housingwire.com/articles/mbs-market-imbalance-fueling-higher-rates/
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