Goldman Sachs and Bitcoin Halving: Market Impact

Goldman Sachs, a global investment bank, has been keeping a close eye on the Bitcoin halving event. This event, which occurs every four years, reduces the reward for mining a block of Bitcoin, thereby reducing the supply of new Bitcoins entering the market.

The halving has historically led to a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin, with some instances showing a surge of up to 100%. For example, in 2016, the price of Bitcoin rose from around $650 to over $2,000 in the months following the halving.

Goldman Sachs has been vocal about its interest in Bitcoin, with some analysts suggesting that the bank may even consider investing in the cryptocurrency. In fact, a report by Goldman Sachs revealed that the bank had been exploring the possibility of launching a Bitcoin futures product.

A unique perspective: What Time Does the Bitcoin Halving Start

The Bitcoin halving is a significant event that's been making headlines, and for good reason. It's scheduled to occur on the block number 840,000, which is expected to be mined between the night of next Friday (19) and the morning of Saturday (20).

Analysts at Goldman Sachs aren't too concerned about a potential price drop, but they do think it's possible. They're calling it the "compre o boato, venda a notícia" scenario, where the market anticipates a drop and sells, causing a temporary price drop.

The Bitcoin Cash (BCH) price has already shown this effect, doubling in value in just 15 days before dropping 30%. However, Goldman Sachs believes that any potential drop will be temporary and won't affect the Bitcoin price in the long run.

The demand for Bitcoin is expected to remain strong, driven by the scarcity of the cryptocurrency and the upcoming launch of American ETFs. This will likely mute the impact of a short-term price drop.

A unique perspective: When Will Bitcoins Run Out

Goldman Sachs' clients are showing renewed interest in Bitcoin, with many actively investing or exploring the potential to do so.

Max Minton, Goldman Sachs' Asia Pacific Head of Digital Assets, noted that the approval of Bitcoin ETFs has reignited interest among the firm's clients. Many of them are now investing in the crypto market or exploring the potential to do so.

Additional reading: Why Are Bitcoins so High

Goldman Sachs is broadening its reach to include a diverse range of clients, including asset managers, banking customers, and firms specializing in digital assets.

The firm's clients are engaging with cryptocurrency derivatives to make speculative predictions, enhance yields, and hedge. Products related to Bitcoin continue to attract the most attention from clients.

The Bitcoin halving, scheduled for late April, will halve the reward for Bitcoin mining, prompting miners to upgrade to more efficient technology. This event is critical for sustaining the economic model of Bitcoin.

The stock-to-flow (S2F) model suggests that Bitcoin's value will climb as it becomes increasingly scarce. Based on this model, experts project that Bitcoin could increase to over $130,000 by 2028.

Goldman Sachs' proactive stance on digital assets, combined with its clients' growing interest, represents a pivotal moment in the cryptocurrency market.

Inflows into the recently launched Bitcoin ETFs could play a significant role in Bitcoin's price trajectory after the halving. Prices have correlated to inflows since the launch, leading to an all-time high of nearly $74,000.

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $62,700 after a 2% rebound following a temporary dip below $60,000.

The Goldman Sachs analysts don't seem too concerned about a potential price drop, citing the theory of "compre o rumor, venda a notícia" (buy the rumor, sell the news).

Curious to learn more? Check out: Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency

Goldman Sachs analysts warn that the bitcoin price could fall in the aftermath of the looming bitcoin halving, citing the price trading above its volatility-adjusted price of $45,000 compared to gold, and a lack of crypto venture capital funding so far this year.

JPMorgan analysts agree, stating that they don't expect bitcoin price increases post-halving as it has already been priced in. They see a downside for the bitcoin price post-halving for several reasons, including overbought conditions and a lack of crypto venture capital funding.

The technical picture for bitcoin is indeed worrying, as the market seems to be getting used to current prices in anticipation of a halving, and the bitcoin halving is now just two days away.

JPMorgan analysts have joined Goldman Sachs in warning that the bitcoin price could fall in the aftermath of the looming bitcoin halving.

Bitcoin's price has already been priced in, according to JPMorgan analysts.

The bitcoin price is trading above its volatility-adjusted price of $45,000 compared to gold, indicating overbought conditions.

A lack of crypto venture capital funding so far this year is also a concern for JPMorgan analysts.

Bitcoin's technical picture is rather worrying, with no rebound after the recent price drop.

The bitcoin halving is now just two days away, with the bitcoin block reward to miners due to be cut to 3.125 bitcoin from 6.25 bitcoin currently.

This will reduce the daily supply of new bitcoin coming onto the market from around 900 bitcoin to 450 bitcoin.

Historically, the previous three halvings have been accompanied by bitcoin price appreciation after the halving, although the time it took to reach the all-time highs differs significantly.

The bitcoin price has previously climbed following bitcoin's three other halving supply cuts.

A fresh viewpoint: Whats Bitcoins All Time High

Bitcoin ETFs have been a game-changer for the cryptocurrency market, with 11 spot ETFs launched and amassing $59.2 billion in assets under management.

Prices have correlated to inflows since the launch, leading to an all-time high of nearly $74,000. This trend suggests that inflows into the ETFs could play a significant role in Bitcoin's price trajectory after the halving.

BTC is currently trading at $62,700 after a 2% rebound following a temporary dip below $60,000. This rebound is a sign that traders may be buying the dip.

CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno believes that Bitcoin's price slump may be nearing an end, as traders have sold off most of their profitable holdings, potentially reducing the downward pressure on Bitcoin's price.

The anticipated supply shock after the Bitcoin halving could lead to a massive rebound, with bulls expecting BTC to reach $80,000.