The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates is affecting mortgage rates, making it more expensive to borrow money. This week's mortgage rates are higher than last week's.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has increased to 4.5%, up from 4.2% last week. This means that if you're considering buying a home, you'll need to pay more in interest over the life of the loan.
For example, on a $200,000 home, a 4.5% interest rate would add $93,000 in interest over the life of the loan, compared to $84,000 at a 4.2% rate. That's a significant difference.
Federal Reserve Mortgage Rates
The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points lowered the target range to 4.25%–4.50%. This move reflects the Fed's effort to balance economic growth and inflation.
The Fed's rate cut doesn't directly guarantee lower mortgage rates, but it can influence economic growth, inflation expectations, and investor behavior. Mortgage rates are also shaped by factors like global economic conditions and housing market trends.
To get the best mortgage rate, it's essential to take proactive steps, such as meeting with multiple lenders and reviewing your credit score to determine how much home you can afford. A higher credit score gives you a better chance at scoring favorable mortgage terms.
Here are some key factors to consider:
- Debt-to-income (DTI) ratio: Keep your DTI ratio below 36% to qualify for better mortgage terms.
- Credit score: Aim for a credit score of 700 or higher to get the best mortgage rates.
- Down payment: Putting down 20% or more can help you qualify for better mortgage rates and lower monthly payments.
The Fed
The Fed has a significant influence on mortgage rates, but it's not a direct relationship. The federal funds rate, set by the Federal Reserve, influences short-term borrowing costs.
The Fed's rate cut in 2024 lowered the target range to 4.25%–4.50%, a move that markets widely anticipated. This reflects the Fed's effort to balance economic growth and inflation.
The Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points was not a surprise, as it was anticipated by markets. The Fed now projects two rate cuts instead of the four it forecasted in September 2024.
Topline
Mortgage rates climbed last week to the highest level since August. This may come as a surprise, especially after the Federal Reserve enacted the first interest rate cut in more than four years.
The rate increase is largely due to the 10-year Treasury yield, which has shot up in recent weeks, moving from about 3.6% to 4.01%. This change in yield has a significant impact on mortgage rates.
Prospective home buyers may not get the relief they were expecting, and it's essential to be aware of the current mortgage rate trends. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) reflects rates for first-lien, conventional, conforming purchase mortgages with a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio greater than 75 and less than or equal to 80 and a credit score of at least 740.
To get the best mortgage rate today, it's crucial to take proactive steps. Advanced preparation and meeting with multiple lenders can go a long way. Even lowering your rate by a few basis points can save you money in the long run.
Here are some key factors to consider when shopping for a mortgage:
- Take stock of your financial situation, including your debt-to-income (DTI) ratio.
- Review your credit score and work towards raising it by paying down balances and limiting new credit cards and loans.
- Meet with several lenders to compare loan options and find the best deal.
- Crunch the numbers with a mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly payments.
- Save money by putting down a larger down payment.
Understanding Interest Rates
Understanding interest rates can be a bit confusing, but it's essential to grasp the concept to make informed decisions about your mortgage. The interest rate is the cost of borrowing money, which is different from the Annual Percentage Rate (APR) that includes lender fees and other expenses.
The APR is the total cost of your loan, which is the best number to look at when comparing rate quotes. Some lenders might offer a lower interest rate but their fees are higher, so you'll want to compare APR, not just the interest rate.
Here's a rough idea of how different interest rates can affect your monthly payments:
Keep in mind that these numbers are approximate and don't take into account other costs associated with homeownership. It's essential to crunch the numbers with a mortgage calculator and review your financial situation to determine how much home you can afford.
APR vs Interest Rate
The interest rate is just the cost of borrowing money, but the APR is the yearly cost of borrowing as well as the lender fees and other expenses associated with getting a mortgage.
APR is a broader reflection of borrowing costs, including the interest rate and fees associated with getting the mortgage. It takes into consideration items like origination fees and costs, closing agent fees, discount points, and other fees dependent on the specific transaction.
APR is typically higher than your base interest rate, but it's a tool that can help you compare mortgage offers. Lenders may calculate APR differently, so it's essential to compare apples to apples.
When looking at mortgage offers, it's essential to compare APR, not just the interest rate. Some lenders might offer a lower interest rate but their fees are higher than other lenders, so the APR can give you a more accurate picture of the total cost of the loan.
Here's a breakdown of what APR includes:
- Interest rate
- Origination fees and costs
- Closing agent fees
- Discount points
- Other fees dependent on the specific transaction
U.S. Average Long-Term Rise: 6.94 Percent
The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate has risen to 6.94 percent, a significant increase from last year's rate of 3.09 percent.
This rise in mortgage rates is largely due to the Federal Reserve's aggressive action to constrain the economy and tame inflation, which has resulted in a stall in the housing sector.
The average rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages jumped to 6.23 percent, a significant increase from last year's rate of 2.33 percent.
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of previously occupied U.S. homes fell in September for the eighth month in a row, with house hunters facing sharply higher mortgage rates, bloated home prices, and a tight supply of properties on the market.
Borrowers who locked in at the higher end of the rate range during the past year would pay several hundred dollars more than borrowers who signed contracts at the lower end of the range.
The Fed's next two-day policy meeting is scheduled for November 1, with most economists expecting another big three-quarters of a point hike in interest rates.
When Will It Go Down?
Mortgage rates are expected to decrease in the future, but when exactly is uncertain. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) forecast mortgage rates to hit 6.4% this year, but current rates are averaging a few basis points above that.
In 2025, the MBA expects rates to drop to 5.9%, a decrease of about 0.5 percentage points from this year's forecast. This could be a good time for consumers to consider refinancing their mortgages.
Rates are expected to continue to decrease in 2026, hitting 5.5%, a drop of about 0.4 percentage points from 2025's forecast. This is the lowest rate the MBA expects in the next few years, suggesting that consumers may want to hold off on refinancing until then.
The average weekly mortgage rate reached 6.84% for the week ending November 21, according to Freddie Mac, which is higher than the MBA's forecast. However, rates are still lower than they were in October 2023, when they peaked at 7.79%.
Key Facts
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen to its highest level since August, reaching 6.52% according to the Mortgage Bankers Association survey. This is the sharpest two-week jump for 30-year mortgage rates since February 2023, with rates up about 0.4 percentage points from the last week of September.
Mortgage rates have been on the rise, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increasing to 7.34% as of today, according to Freddie Mac. This is up from 6.92% last week and 3.09% last year at this time.
The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate has also risen, jumping to 6.23% from 6.09% last week. This is the highest rate since the housing market crash of 2008.
Here's a breakdown of the average monthly payments for a $425,000 loan at different interest rates:
- 5% interest rate: $2,281 in monthly payments
- 6% interest rate: $2,548 in monthly payments
- 7% interest rate: $2,828 in monthly payments
- 8% interest rate: $3,119 in monthly payments
The Federal Reserve's aggressive action has stalled the housing sector, with sales of previously occupied U.S. homes falling for the eighth month in a row.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the federal interest rate for mortgage today?
As of December 30, 2024, the current average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 7.03%. Check for updates on current mortgage rates to make informed decisions about your home loan.
Are mortgage rates predicted to drop?
Mortgage rates are expected to drop, but the pace of decline has been slow, with predictions of reaching 6% by the end of 2024 and potentially mid-5% by 2025.
Sources
- https://www.veteransunited.com/va-loans/va-mortgage-rates/
- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/mortgage-rates/
- https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/average-long-term-u-s-mortgage-rates-rise-this-week-to-6-94-percent
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/10/16/mortgage-rates-rise-to-2-month-high-defying-conventional-interest-rate-cut-wisdom/
- https://www.housingwire.com/articles/mortgage-rates-decline-december-2024-fed-meeting-fannie-mae-optimal-blue-ice/
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