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The recent decline in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) has left many investors wondering what's behind this trend. One major factor is the rising interest rates, which have made borrowing more expensive for REITs.
This, in turn, has reduced the attractiveness of REITs for investors seeking income, as the lower yields make them less competitive with bonds. Many REITs have been forced to increase their dividend payouts to attract investors, but this can be a challenge in a rising interest rate environment.
Investors are also concerned about the potential for a recession, which could lead to a decline in property values and reduced rental income for REITs. The current economic uncertainty has made investors more cautious, leading them to sell their REIT holdings.
Why REITs Are Down
REITs had a hard time starting with the bear market of 2022 due to the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes.
The rising interest rates made it more expensive for REITs to borrow money and hurt the value of their assets. This was bad news for real estate investors.
Negative headlines about empty office spaces scared away investors, but only a small percentage of REITs invest in office spaces.
REITs experienced a temporary shake-up caused by higher interest rates, but it seems to be ebbing, which could spell good news for REITs.
Historically, REITs tend to deliver their highest returns during early stages of the real estate recovery cycle.
REITs typically achieve forward-year returns around 20 percent during the early stage of an economic expansion.
Past performance isn't a guarantee that REITs will perform well in the future, but it's worth noting.
Malls and downtown office spaces may have more trouble retaining tenants and collecting rents long term due to the shift to remote work.
Investment Opportunity
The decline in REITs has created a buying opportunity for investors looking to diversify their portfolios.
REITs have historically provided stable returns, with an average annual return of 9.4% over the past decade.
This makes them an attractive option for investors seeking predictable income.
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a significant decline in REITs, with prices falling by as much as 50% in some cases.
However, this decline has also created a buying opportunity for investors who are willing to take on some risk.
The REIT sector has been impacted by the pandemic, with many companies struggling to maintain their dividend payments.
Despite this, some REITs have managed to maintain their dividend payments, with companies like Realty Income and National Retail Properties continuing to pay their dividends.
This is a testament to the strength of the REIT sector and the ability of these companies to adapt to changing market conditions.
Investors who are looking to buy REITs should consider companies that have a strong track record of dividend payments and a solid balance sheet.
By doing so, they can potentially benefit from the long-term growth of the REIT sector.
REIT Performance Analysis
REITs had a tough start in 2022 due to the bear market and aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed, which made borrowing more expensive and hurt asset values.
Historically, REITs tend to deliver their highest returns during early stages of the real estate recovery cycle. This could spell a strong performance for REITs moving forward.
A temporary shake-up caused by higher interest rates seems to be ebbing, which could be good news for REITs.
REITs typically achieve forward-year returns around 20 percent during the early stage of an economic expansion. This is according to research from Cohen & Steers.
The generous dividend payments enjoyed by REIT investors may look particularly attractive moving forward, especially with rate cuts on the horizon.
REIT stocks are only as good as the properties they own, and some real estate sectors may be better positioned than others. Malls and downtown office spaces, for example, may have more trouble retaining tenants and collecting rents long term.
Data centers, senior health care centers, and shopping centers are areas of interest according to Fidelity's 2024 real estate sector outlook.
Sources
- https://www.bankrate.com/investing/good-time-to-buy-reits/
- https://www.wealthprofessional.ca/investments/alternative-investments/reits-are-in-their-worst-spell-since-the-gfc-is-a-turnaround-coming/386856
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/brettowens/2018/01/25/rates-up-reits-down-buy-this-dip-now/
- https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/economy/trumps-election-victory-has-no-magic-spark-for-reits-a-day-later-126658
- https://ploutostrading.substack.com/p/why-are-reits-down
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