
Central banks are increasingly buying gold, but why? One reason is to diversify their reserves and reduce dependence on fiat currencies, which have been volatile in recent years.
In fact, between 2010 and 2019, the world's central banks increased their gold reserves by 15%, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reporting that the total amount of gold held by central banks rose from 29,000 tonnes to 33,000 tonnes.
Central banks are also buying gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, which can erode the value of their fiat currencies.
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Why Central Banks Buy Gold
Central banks are buying gold in response to economic and geopolitical uncertainty. They've always held gold as a historical legacy asset position, but now they're also seeking it as a hedge against inflation and recession.
Gold is a proven long-term store of value and an effective portfolio diversifier. By purchasing gold, central banks can preserve the value of their portfolios and potentially reap substantial paper profits when interest rates eventually relent.
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Non-traditional reasons are also powering the move to buy gold, especially for EMDEs. The conflict in Ukraine and Russian sanctions have made non-Western nations aware of the vulnerability of their U.S. dollar reserves.
Central banks are keenly aware of impending global financial crisis and are relying on gold to mitigate its potential effects on their bottom line. They're seeking higher reserves of gold as a buffer against any payment crisis that may erupt from current or future sanctions.
EMDE banks are often more aggressive in their gold purchases than their Western counterparts. They tend to not have the same faith in U.S. dollar reserves and are relying on gold to insulate their fragile economies from global financial crises.
As deglobalisation accelerates, non-G-10 nations are expected to 're-commoditize' and ramp up gold holdings. According to a World Gold Council survey, 61% of central banks expect to increase their gold holdings over the next year.
Gold is a great hedge against inflation, and its value is likely to increase during inflationary periods.
Effects on the Individual Investor
Central banks are buying gold, and that's good news for individual investors. They're providing long-term price support, which can help protect your wealth from market volatility and global uncertainty.
The bursting of the "everything bubble" in the past year has been brutal, with global stock market losses costing investors $18 trillion. Stocks, bonds, crypto, and real estate have all taken a hit, with crypto's total market cap plummeting by 64.5% from $2.25 trillion to $798 billion.
For those with retirement funds, now may be an ideal time to move assets into gold. It could help shield your wealth from inflation, recession, and market downturns.
Impact on Investment Decisions
The impact of market volatility on investment decisions can be significant. Investors may feel anxious or uncertain about the future of their investments, leading them to make impulsive decisions.
Market downturns can cause investors to sell their stocks at a loss, locking in their losses and potentially missing out on future gains. This is a common mistake, as the stock market has historically recovered from downturns.
Investors may also become overly cautious and avoid taking on new investments or risks. This can result in missed opportunities for growth and returns. As seen in the example of the 2008 financial crisis, investors who remained invested during the downturn were often rewarded with higher returns in the long run.
Investors who are more informed and prepared may be better equipped to navigate market volatility and make more informed investment decisions. This can involve diversifying their portfolios, setting clear financial goals, and avoiding emotional decision-making.
By understanding the impact of market volatility on investment decisions, individuals can take steps to protect their investments and make more informed choices.
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Opportunities and Risks
As an individual investor, you have a unique opportunity to shape your financial future, but it also comes with inherent risks.
Investing in the stock market can be a great way to grow your wealth over time, with some investors experiencing returns as high as 10% per year.
However, research suggests that many individual investors tend to sell their stocks after a significant loss, which can lead to missed opportunities and poor investment decisions.
The fear of losing money can be a significant barrier to investing, but it's essential to understand that some level of risk is always present in the market.
For example, a study found that investors who sold their stocks after a 20% decline in value missed out on an average of 4% in annual returns over the next 10 years.
On the other hand, investors who held on to their stocks during a downturn often saw their portfolios recover more quickly than those who sold out too early.
Investing in a diversified portfolio can help mitigate some of the risks associated with individual stocks, but it's crucial to have a solid understanding of your own risk tolerance and investment goals.
By doing your research and setting clear objectives, you can make informed decisions that align with your financial goals and reduce the likelihood of costly mistakes.
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Gold as Safe-Haven Asset
Central banks are turning to gold as a safe-haven asset to protect against economic and geopolitical uncertainty. They're aware of the potential effects of a global financial crisis and are using gold to mitigate its impact on their bottom line.
Gold is a proven long-term store of value and an effective portfolio diversifier. In times of economic uncertainty, its value tends to hold steady or even increase.
As the global financial order is shaken by events like the conflict in Ukraine, central banks are seeking to diversify their reserves and reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar. In a World Gold Council survey, 42% of banks expect the number of U.S. dollars held in reserve to drop.
This shift is driven by the growing split between the U.S./West and Russia/China, which has made non-Western nations more cautious about holding U.S. dollar reserves. EMDE banks, in particular, are seeking higher reserves of gold as a buffer against payment crises.
As Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP, noted, "As deglobalisation accelerates, the non-G-10 nations are expected to 're-commoditize' and ramp up gold holdings." This trend is expected to continue, with 61% of central banks planning to increase their gold holdings over the next year.
Managing Economic Uncertainty
Central banks are buying gold to tackle economic uncertainties that make it difficult to predict a country's financial future. These uncertainties can arise from government policy changes, political instability, market fluctuations, natural disasters, and more.
Countries like India, China, and Turkey are increasing their gold reserves, which gives them greater influence on international trade, finance, and negotiations. This is a strategic economic move to get economic leverage.
Central banks are holding more gold in response to both economic and geopolitical uncertainty. The World Gold Council survey found that 42% of banks expect the number of US dollars held in reserve to drop.
The conflict in Ukraine shook the global financial order, and Russian sanctions woke up non-Western nations to the vulnerability of their US dollar reserves. EMDE banks are seeking higher reserves of gold as a buffer against any payment crisis.
Central banks are buying gold to preserve value in their portfolios, as portfolio value declined with central banks raising interest rates to combat inflation. They are also turning to gold as a hedge against persistent inflation and the effects of the recession.
A World Gold Council survey found that 61% of central banks expect to increase their gold holdings over the next year. This is a sign that central banks are preparing for a potential global financial crisis.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who owns the most gold in 2024?
The United States owns the most gold in 2024, with a significant portion stored in deep vaults in Denver, Fort Knox, and West Point. As of May 2024, the US holds approximately 8,133.5 metric tons of gold.
Sources
- https://www.nomuraconnects.com/focused-thinking-posts/central-banks-and-emerging-markets-push-gold-sky-high-says-world-gold-council/
- https://www.schiffgold.com/guest-commentaries/central-banks-buy-gold-as-lifeboat
- https://www.forbes.com/councils/forbesfinancecouncil/2023/04/20/how-central-banks-may-fuel-a-new-gold-rush-and-what-it-means-for-investors/
- https://www.boldpreciousmetals.com/news/why-central-banks-are-buying-gold
- https://www.fortuneindia.com/long-reads/whats-behind-central-banks-gold-rush/111000
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