The Russian rouble has been on a wild ride lately. The government has been working hard to tackle the economic fallout, and it's been making some big moves.
One of the key measures is the introduction of capital controls, which aim to prevent a massive exodus of funds from the country. This has helped to stabilize the rouble, but it's also had some unintended consequences.
The government has also been working to increase the country's foreign currency reserves, which have been depleted in recent months. This will help to provide a safety net in case of further economic shocks.
In addition, the government has been implementing a series of economic reforms aimed at increasing the country's competitiveness and attractiveness to foreign investors.
Ruble Crisis
The Russian ruble has been on a rollercoaster ride lately, hitting a two-year low against the dollar.
The rouble's decline comes after Russia launched its newly developed Oreshnik hypersonic missile at a Ukrainian military facility, followed by the US imposing fresh sanctions on Gazprombank, Russia's major energy payment channel.
The rouble is down 1.7% at 103.02 against the dollar, earlier hitting 103.7455, its weakest mark since March 23, 2022.
Experts say the main reason for the rouble's decline is the sanctions against Gazprombank, which was a backbone bank for exporters.
The rouble's official exchange rate, set by the central bank using over-the-counter data, broke through the 100 mark against the dollar this week for the first time since October 2023.
Analysts widely agree that FX volatility on Russian markets will be high shortly.
However, some analysts offer a rosier forecast, suggesting that the new sanctions may complicate not just settlements for exports but also for imports, which in turn will lower demand for foreign currency, potentially leading to a strengthening of the Russian currency in the medium term.
The weak ruble will make the battle against inflation more difficult for authorities to manage, but experts caution that every time the ruble has previously slid, the government has eventually stepped in to correct the rate.
Government Response
The Russian government has been quick to respond to the ruble's volatility, with Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov attributing it to the strength of the US dollar and market concerns following sanctions against Gazprombank.
The government seems to be downplaying the situation, with Reshetnikov assuring that the ruble's volatility is not due to "fundamental factors" and that the situation will "soon stabilize."
However, some experts suggest that a weak ruble may actually suit the Kremlin's massive spending plans, as it would allow them to convert foreign currency earnings into more rubles.
Government Statements
The government has been speaking out about the recent ruble volatility. The central bank said its decision to stop foreign currency purchases was made to reduce the volatility of financial markets.
Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov attributed the ruble's volatility to the strength of the US dollar and market concerns following the sanctions against Gazprombank. He believes the situation will soon stabilize.
A weak ruble may actually suit the government's spending plans. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov hinted that the current exchange rate is conducive to exports.
The government sees the slide of the ruble as an opportunity to convert foreign currency earnings into more rubles. This could help keep the budget deficit low ahead of the huge budget increase in 2025.
Weafer thinks the government may also see advantages in making exports cheaper for prospective buyers. He cited fertilizers as an example of a product that could benefit from a weaker ruble.
US Sanctions Hit Key Bank
The US government has imposed fresh sanctions on Gazprombank, a major energy payment channel in Russia. This move is expected to disrupt the flow of payments from European buyers of Russian gas.
The sanctions restrict Gazprombank's ability to process new energy transactions, which is a significant blow to Russia's economy. The bank was a backbone for exporters, and its decline will have a ripple effect on the country's currency.
The Russian rouble has already taken a hit, plummeting to its lowest level in over two years against the dollar. It's now trading at 102.58 roubles to the US dollar, a level not seen since March 2022.
The US sanctions are a clear response to Russia's actions, including the launch of a new hypersonic missile at a Ukrainian military facility. This move has escalated tensions between Russia and the West, leading to a decline in the rouble's value.
The sanctions may complicate not just settlements for exports but also for imports, which will lower demand for foreign currency. This could potentially lead to a strengthening of the Russian currency in the medium term.
Russia's Economy Stable
Russia's economy has been surprisingly stable despite the ongoing war and sanctions.
The country's huge reserves of oil and gas have provided massive revenues throughout 2022.
Russia has been able to evade sanctions for much of 2023, and it has deepened trade relationships with countries like China and India.
However, there are reasons for Moscow to be worried, as the falling price of oil has hit its most important source of revenue.
The latest data suggests the economy is overheating to a level that is dangerous for financial stability, putting significant pressure on the Kremlin to get the situation under control.
The weak ruble will make the battle against inflation more difficult for authorities to manage.
The government has downplayed the situation, with the central bank saying its decision to stop foreign currency purchases was made to reduce the volatility of financial markets.
Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov attributed the ruble's volatility to the strength of the US dollar and market concerns following the sanctions against Gazprombank.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov hinted that the government sees the slide of the ruble as a chance to convert foreign currency earnings into as many rubles as possible ahead of the huge budget increase in 2025.
External Factors
The Russian ruble has been heavily impacted by external factors, and one of the main reasons is the decline in oil prices. This has reduced Russia's earning capacity from its most important commodity.
The US sanctions placed on Gazprombank on November 21 have further exacerbated the situation, limiting the Kremlin's capacity to fund its military and making it harder to receive revenues for its commodities, including gas.
The ruble has fallen by more than a third since August, and defense spending has more than tripled since 2021, which is putting additional pressure on the Russian economy. The country's central bank estimates inflation hit 8.5% this year, double its target.
The sharp ruble plunge is also linked to the new US sanctions targeting a key bank facilitating Russia's gas exports to Europe, which has restricted its ability to process new energy transactions. This could disrupt the flow of payments from European buyers of Russian gas.
The rouble’s decline has been significant, with the official exchange rate hitting a two-year low against the dollar on Friday, following the new US sanctions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the ruble expected to rise?
Yes, the Russian Ruble is expected to appreciate in value, with a predicted increase to 107.14 in 12 months' time. This suggests a potential rise in the ruble's value over the next year.
Why is the Russian ruble getting stronger?
The Russian ruble is getting stronger due to high demand from countries needing to convert euros to rubles to buy fuel from Russia, causing its value to rise. The ruble's stability is also supported by the Russian government's internal measures to maintain its value.
Sources
- https://www.gmfus.org/news/russias-ruble-dips-new-lows-moscow-managing
- https://www.dw.com/en/russia-ruble-us-sanctions-war-in-ukraine-v1/a-70905425
- https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/28/russia-tries-to-stem-panic-over-plummeting-ruble-central-bank-steps-in.html
- https://cepa.org/article/kremlin-options-narrow-as-ruble-slumps/
- https://www.firstpost.com/world/russian-ruble-tumbles-to-two-year-low-as-us-sanctions-hit-key-bank-13837790.html
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