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The Japanese yen has been on a rollercoaster ride, with its value increasing significantly over the past few years. This has led to a stronger yen, making imports more expensive for Japan.
The Bank of Japan's monetary policy has played a crucial role in the yen's appreciation. By keeping interest rates low, the central bank has reduced the attractiveness of the yen, causing investors to seek higher returns elsewhere.
As a result, the yen has gained value against major currencies like the US dollar and the euro. This has had a ripple effect on Japan's economy, making exports more competitive.
In 2020, the yen reached a 25-year high against the US dollar, with the exchange rate reaching 104.8 yen per dollar.
Market Analysis
The Japanese Yen has been on the rise, and it's all thanks to a hawkish Bank of Japan. Japan's Machinery Orders increased by 2.1% month-on-month in June, surpassing the forecasted 1.1% rise.
This is a significant indicator of capital expenditure, and it shows that businesses in Japan are starting to invest more. The Bank of Japan's monetary policy direction is now being closely watched, and markets are expecting Japanese inflation figures later this week to provide further insight.
US Housing Starts dropped by 6.8% in July, which is a bit of a concern. However, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 67.8 in August, showing its first increase in five months.
This is a positive sign for the US economy, and it suggests that consumers are feeling more optimistic about the future. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 9 reached 227,000, lower than the forecast of 235,000 and down from 234,000 the previous week.
The US Census Bureau reported that US Retail Sales climbed 1.0% month-over-month in July, a sharp turnaround from June's 0.2% decline. This is a good sign for the US economy, and it suggests that consumers are starting to spend more.
Japan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, surpassing market forecasts of 0.5% and rebounding from a 0.6% decline in Q1. This marked the strongest quarterly growth since Q1 of 2023.
Here are some key economic indicators that are worth keeping an eye on:
- Japanese inflation figures (later this week)
- US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) (year-over-year in July)
- Core CPI (year-over-year in July)
- US data releases (this week and next week)
These indicators will provide valuable insights into the potential responses of US policymakers and the direction of monetary policy. According to Rabobank's senior FX strategist, Jane Foley, the Fed is likely to reduce rates by 25 basis points in September and cut them again before the end of the year.
Yen Performance
The Japanese yen has been on a roll lately, with a significant rally after the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates as expected.
The yen strengthened, and Japanese government bond yields rose to fresh multi-year highs, reflecting Japan's economic status as the third-largest national economy and its extensive global trading network. This is a big deal, especially for travelers to Japan, as a weaker yen makes it more affordable to exchange currencies.
According to the latest exchange rates, the Japanese yen accounts for nearly 15% of global forex trading volume, second only to the US dollar and euro. This makes the yen rate a key indicator of Japan's economic performance.
Here's a snapshot of the yen's performance against major currencies today:
The heat map shows the percentage changes of major currencies against each other, with the Japanese yen being the strongest against the US dollar.
Exchange Rates
The Japanese yen is a highly traded currency, accounting for nearly 15% of global forex trading volume, second only to the US dollar and euro.
The yen's value is of great interest, especially in the Hong Kong region, where it's a common concern due to Japan's extensive global trading network.
The yen rate is naturally of interest, and its depreciation can make traveling to Japan more affordable.
Sources
- https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-rises-due-to-increasing-odds-of-a-further-boj-rate-hike-202408190401
- https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15376414
- https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/japanese-yen
- https://www.futuhk.com/en/blog/detail-yen-exchange-rate-trend-46-240580012
- https://www.9dashline.com/article/the-yens-fluctuation-and-its-geopolitical-ripple-effects-a-new-normal-in-indo-pacific
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