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The GBP USD currency forecast for 2023 is looking interesting, with potential gains for investors. The current market analysis suggests that the pound is likely to strengthen against the dollar due to the UK's economic recovery.
The Bank of England's interest rate hike in 2022 has already had a positive impact on the currency, and experts predict further gains in 2023. This could be a great opportunity for investors to buy pounds and sell dollars.
The economic indicators are pointing towards a strong UK economy, with low unemployment rates and rising GDP. This bodes well for the pound's value against the dollar.
Investors should consider diversifying their portfolios to take advantage of the potential gains in the GBP USD exchange rate.
GBP/USD Forecast
Analysts' predictions for the pound-to-dollar rate vary, but most see a stable or slightly bearish outlook. Scotiabank's Shaun Osborne was neutral/bearish on the GBP/USD rate, expecting firm support on dips to the low/mid 1.14 area.
ING analyst Chris Turner was relatively neutral in his pound to US dollar forecast, while Francesco Pesole at ING was mildly bearish on the pound. Citibank's Hong Kong office analysts wrote about their outlook for GBP/USD, highlighting support levels at 1.1055, 1.0765, and 1.0514.
WalletInvestor predicted the pair could fall in the near term and end the year at $1.148, while its forecast for 2025 was for the rate to maintain at $1.13. AI Pickup's GBP/USD forecast for 2022 saw the pound trading at a slightly higher average of $1.16 by the end of this year.
Keep in mind that analysts can and do get their predictions wrong, so it's essential to do your own research and consider the latest market trends and news.
GBP/USD Analysis
GBP/USD slid to a 9-month low, a significant drop that traders should take note of. This move was likely influenced by the positive US outlook and the appreciating US dollar.
The pair began the new year by revisiting key support zones, a trend that continued into the end of the year as it traded in low volatility and volume. This sideways trade was observed above key support zones.
Here are some key dates to keep in mind:
- 2024-12-27: EUR/USD, GBP/USD sideways trade in low volume and volatility above key support
- 2024-12-23: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, and GBP/USD hover above minor support in low volume end-of year trade
- 2025-01-02: EUR/USD, GBP/USD begin new year by revisiting key support zones as traders position themselves
- 2025-01-03: EUR/USD drops to over 2-year low while GBP/USD slides to 9-month low
Current Market Trends
The current market trends in the USD are largely driven by hawkish Fed bets and safe-haven flows.
The US economy is showing signs of strength, with a robust labour market and inflation rising by 0.4% in September.
A 75bps interest rate hike by the Fed in September was widely expected by markets, and analysts at ING Group predict two more hikes in store.
The chances of a recession in the US seem less likely, with the Fed confident that the economy can handle rate hikes.
The US CPI rose 0.4% in September, following a 0.1% rise in August, with a year-on-year reading of 8.2% for September.
GBP Performance in 2022
The GBP performed relatively well in 2022, with a high point of 1.375 against the USD in September.
The pound's strength was largely due to the UK's economic resilience, which was boosted by a strong services sector.
It reached a low of 1.065 in June, largely due to concerns over the UK's economic growth and inflation.
Despite these fluctuations, the GBP remained a popular currency for traders and investors.
The Bank of England's decision to raise interest rates in December added to the pound's appeal, making it an attractive option for those looking to invest in the UK.
This move helped to stabilize the currency and reduce its volatility.
EUR/USD Hits 2-Year Low
The EUR/USD pair has dropped to an over 2-year low, making it a significant event in the currency market. This decline is part of the broader trend of a positive US outlook and an appreciating US dollar.
As we begin the new year, traders are positioning themselves for the next move in the EUR/USD pair. This is evident in the fact that the pair has revisited key support zones.
The EUR/USD pair has been trading in low volatility and volume towards the end of the year. This is a characteristic of a range-bound market, where prices are stuck between two levels of support and resistance.
Here are some key dates to keep in mind:
- 2025-01-03: EUR/USD drops to over 2-year low
- 2024-12-30: EUR/USD range trades in low volatility and volume
- 2024-12-27: EUR/USD sideways trades in low volume and volatility above key support
These dates highlight the recent price action in the EUR/USD pair and provide a context for understanding the current market conditions.
Trading Strategies
To trade GBP/USD, you can open a CFD trading or spread betting account, allowing you to speculate on the price without taking ownership of the underlying currencies. You can go long (buy) or short (sell) based on your analysis of the market.
The price of GBP/USD represents how many dollars you need to sell to buy one pound, so if the price quote is 1.22075, it means £1 costs just over $1.22. You should keep up to date with fundamentals that could move the GBP/USD price, such as news about Brexit and the US-China trade war, and recurring events like Bank of England and Federal Reserve announcements.
Many different GBP/USD trading strategies exist, including the momentum indicator forex strategy, RSI indicator forex strategy, and breakout trading forex strategy. These strategies will help you determine when it's time to enter and exit a trade.
Real-time charts and trading signals can also aid your decision-making, allowing you to analyse index price action and identify the right time to trade. Three types of alerts can be set up to notify you when a market changes an amount, hits a level, or meets your technical conditions.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the GBP to USD forecast for 2025?
The GBP to USD exchange rate is forecast to be around 1.24 at the end of 2025, but some analysts predict a potential rally to 1.30.
Why is GBP USD falling?
The GBP/USD is falling due to divergent economic policies and the UK's economic struggles, which are expected to weigh on the Pound Sterling in 2025. Sellers returned in late 2024, halting the currency's recovery from a four-decade low.
Sources
- https://www.ig.com/uk/forex/markets-forex/gbp-usd
- https://forecast-chart.com/usd-british-pound.html
- https://fxopen.com/blog/en/gt-gbp-usd-long-term-forecast/
- https://paxforex.org/forex-fundamental-analysis/gbpusd-forecast-february-02nd-2023
- https://capital.com/gbp-to-usd-forecast-what-is-next-for-the-forex-pair
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