So you want to understand foreign exchange rates, huh? Well, let's break it down in simple terms. A foreign exchange rate is the price of one country's currency in terms of another country's currency.
The exchange rate is determined by the supply and demand of a currency in the foreign exchange market. This market is open 24/7, and it's where currencies are traded. The exchange rate can fluctuate constantly due to various economic and political factors.
For example, if the exchange rate between the US dollar and the euro is 1.20, it means you can exchange $1 for €1.20. The exchange rate can be fixed or floating, depending on the country's economic policies.
Currency Values
A country's currency value can fluctuate greatly depending on its exchange rate with other countries. The value of a currency is determined by its exchange rate with other currencies.
For a handful of countries, the exchange rate is fixed, meaning it's pegged to a more stable currency like the U.S. dollar or the euro. This is done to maintain stability for investors who don't want to worry about fluctuations in the currency's value.
Most exchange rates, however, are floating, meaning their values constantly change depending on various economic factors. The value of the Indian rupee, for example, has depreciated over time, making it worth less.
The value of a currency can also be influenced by a country's attractiveness to investors. Stable countries with a strong economy tend to have a more valuable currency, as investors are more likely to invest in those countries.
Investors from other countries need to use the country's currency to invest, which drives up its value. This is why the South Korean won appreciated in value after the French person invested in the South Korean stock market.
Oil exports can also play a significant role in determining a country's currency value. If a foreign oil company wants to buy oil in Canada, it needs to exchange its foreign currency for Canadian dollars, driving up the demand for the Canadian dollar and thus its value.
The rising value of a country's currency versus others may be an indicator of improving economic health. If the GBP is rising against the USD, for example, it's in higher demand at that time.
The value of a currency can also be influenced by trade and investment. Currencies are exchanged on a much greater scale for trade, buying goods and services from another country, and investment, which can drive up the demand for a currency and increase its value.
In the case of the Israeli new shekel, its value has grown over time, trading in for twenty-seven cents in June 2023, a 42 percent increase. This is an example of a currency appreciating in value.
Factors Affecting Currency Value
A country's attractiveness to investors can significantly impact its currency value. Stable countries with a strong economy and favorable business environment are considered attractive destinations for investments, driving up the value of their currency.
Investors' uncertainty about a country's future can lead to a decrease in demand for its currency, causing its value to fall. This was seen in the United Kingdom after the Brexit referendum in 2016, where investors were hesitant to invest due to uncertainty about the country's economic future.
Economic factors such as inflation and interest rates can also affect currency value. Inflation erodes purchasing power, leading to a decrease in demand for a country's currency. On the other hand, low inflation can lead to a stronger currency.
A country's economic policy, including government budget deficits or surpluses, can also impact its currency value. A widening budget deficit can lead to a decrease in demand for a country's currency, causing its value to fall.
The balance of trade levels and trends can also influence currency value. A trade surplus can lead to an increase in demand for a country's currency, causing its value to rise.
Here are some key economic factors that affect currency value:
These economic factors, along with political conditions and market psychology, influence the supply and demand for a currency, ultimately affecting its value.
Measuring Currency Rates
A bilateral exchange rate is the most common way to measure an exchange rate, and it's the value of one currency relative to another. It's typically quoted against the US dollar, as it's the most traded currency globally.
For example, an Australian dollar (AUD) quoted against the US dollar (USD) gives you the amount of US dollars you'll receive for each Australian dollar you convert. If the AUD/USD exchange rate is 0.75, you'll get US75 cents for every AUD1 converted to US dollars.
A trade-weighted index (TWI) provides a broader measure of general trends in a currency, capturing the price of a domestic currency in terms of a weighted average of a group of currencies. The weights of each currency in the basket are based on the share of trade conducted with each of a country's trading partners.
Measuring Rates
A bilateral exchange rate is the most common way to measure an exchange rate, referring to the value of one currency relative to another.
It's often quoted against the US dollar, as it's the most traded currency globally. The AUD/USD exchange rate, for example, gives you the amount of US dollars you'll receive for each Australian dollar converted.
Bilateral exchange rates are visible in our daily lives, affecting consumers when they travel or order goods from other countries, and businesses when they import or export goods.
To calculate a cross rate, you use a third currency, combining two known exchange rates. For instance, the EUR/AUD exchange rate can be calculated by using the EUR/USD and USD/AUD rates.
A trade-weighted index (TWI) provides a broader measure of general trends in a currency, capturing the price of a domestic currency in terms of a weighted average of a group of currencies.
A TWI generally fluctuates less than bilateral exchange rates because movements in the bilateral exchange rates used to construct it will often partly offset each other.
Trade-Weighted Index (TWI)
A trade-weighted index, or TWI, is a way to measure a currency's value relative to a group of currencies, rather than just one. This provides a more accurate picture of a currency's overall strength.
The TWI captures the price of a domestic currency in terms of a weighted average of a group of currencies, which are selected based on the share of trade conducted with each country. This means that a TWI takes into account a country's trade relationships with multiple partners, not just one.
A TWI generally fluctuates less than bilateral exchange rates because movements in the bilateral exchange rates used to construct a TWI will often partly offset each other. This makes it a more stable measure of a currency's value.
For example, if a country's currency is strong against one trading partner but weak against another, the TWI will reflect this, but the bilateral exchange rate might not show the full picture.
Sources
- https://education.cfr.org/learn/reading/understanding-currencies-and-exchange-rates
- https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/exchange-rates-and-their-measurement.html
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_market
- https://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/exchange-rate
- https://www.expat.hsbc.com/international-banking/what-makes-exchange-rates-move/
Featured Images: pexels.com