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Investors in DJT meme stocks should be cautious due to the volatile nature of these investments.
The value of these stocks can fluctuate rapidly, with price swings of 10% or more in a single day.
Meme stocks are often driven by social media hype, which can lead to unpredictable price movements.
Investors should be aware that these stocks are not suitable for those who cannot afford to lose their entire investment.
Classic Signs of a Meme Stock
Trump Media stock exhibits classic signs of a meme stock, which can be a recipe for disaster. It generates minimal revenue and its social media platform, Trump Social, isn't exactly taking off.
The company's share price is heavily influenced by factors outside of its core operations, not its fundamentals. This means that speculators are driving the market, rather than the company's actual performance.
Speculators likely saw worsening prospects for Trump winning against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris than they did against Biden, causing shares of Trump Media stock to fall after President Joe Biden announced he was dropping out of the election in July.
The stock has averaged a fairly high short interest of more than 7% this year, and that percentage has been rising in recent weeks. This opens the door to a possible short squeeze if speculators become more bullish on Trump's chances.
Risks and Challenges
High volume trading with a rapidly rising stock can be a recipe for disaster. This is because it leads to a lot of short-term speculation, making it easier for the stock price to stumble and reverse the uptrend.
Extremely high volume trading has taken over the DJT meme stock, overshadowing the company's fundamentals. The Trump brand is now the primary driver, with commentaries linking the presidential election prospects to the company.
A weak 3rd quarter earnings report could be a major setback for the stock, reminding investors that the fundamental support of DJT is very low.
A Measure That Makes 300% Gain Risky
The recent trading volume of Trump Media stock is a significant concern. It's reached an enormous 390M share volume this week.
This is a staggering number, especially when compared to the stock's total float of 75M non-insider owned shares.
The high trading volume is a sign of market volatility, which can be a double-edged sword for investors. On one hand, it can indicate a strong interest in the stock, but on the other hand, it can also lead to price fluctuations.
The fact that the trading volume has ranged from high to very high to extremely high since shares became unlocked on Sept. 20 is a clear indication of the market's instability.
Four Issues Could Undermine the Runup
Extremely high volume with a rapidly rising stock means there is a lot of short-term speculation going on, which can quickly reverse the uptrend.
The Trump brand is now the primary driver of the stock, with commentaries linking the presidential election prospects to the company.
A stock price stumble can undermine the enthusiasm of investors, reminding them that the fundamental support of DJT is very low.
The company's 3rd quarter earnings report will be released shortly after the election, which could reveal weak revenue and large losses.
The company's press releases have described the details of getting Truth+ streaming up and running, but investors may soon remember that the company's fundamentals are not as strong as the stock price suggests.
Market Trends
The market trends surrounding djt meme stock are a fascinating topic.
The stock's price skyrocketed in January 2021, rising by 2,600% in a single month, making it one of the most volatile stocks in the market.
This rapid growth was largely fueled by social media sentiment, with many investors and traders jumping on the bandwagon and buying into the stock.
The stock's price has been highly correlated with the overall market sentiment, particularly on Reddit's WallStreetBets forum.
The stock's price has been known to drop rapidly when sentiment turns bearish, making it a high-risk investment for many investors.
Trump Media Stock Price
Trump Media's stock price has been a topic of interest, especially since Trump's majority ownership stake of almost 60% has a significant impact on the stock's value.
The stock price has more than doubled since hitting a low on September 24, but it's still far from its peak of $79.38 on March 26, the day it went public.
DJT stock has attracted short sellers, who seek to profit from a potential drop in the stock price, leading to accusations from Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes that these investors have manipulated the stock.
Nunes has requested investigations by lawmakers and the Nasdaq stock market, where DJT is listed.
The expiration of a lock-up period following DJT's initial stock sale has also contributed to the stock's volatility, as insiders, including Trump Media's top executives, can now sell their shares.
Trump has vowed not to sell his shares, but another insider, United Atlantic Ventures, has sold a large stake, which could have contributed to the stock's September dip.
United Atlantic Ventures, owned by Andrew Litinsky and Wes Moss, two former contestants on "The Apprentice", sold 7.5 million shares, or about 4% of the company's outstanding shares.
Trump's shares, valued at almost $3.4 billion at today's price, would likely drop if he sold them for any reason, as noted by S3 Partners in a November 6 research note.
Why Now
The timing of the DJT meme stock surge is ripe for another wave of excitement.
The arrival of Donald Trump's media company, Trump Media and Technology Group, brought back memories of the 2021 GameStop bonanza.
We're still within spitting distance of all-time highs on major stock indices, which means the market is still feeling the effects of the pandemic-era cheap money and widespread adoption of free trading apps.
The DJT meme stock has surged nearly 200% this year, making it extremely volatile and rising and falling rapidly depending on the whims of the day.
The difference between the 2021 craze and now is that the David of the story no longer has a Goliath like Melvin Capital, which ran itself into the ground shorting GameStop.
I don't think that the people who are short the stock are as adamant as Gabe Plotkin, who had more conviction than money.
Sources
- https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/09/17/is-trump-media-technology-stock-heading-for-0/
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntobey/2024/10/30/trump-media-stock-djta-meme-stock-plummet-can-be-hard-to-stop/
- https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-djt-stock-will-not-sell-shares-investigation-truth-social/
- https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-why-is-djt-stock-going-up-election/
- https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/14/business/meme-stocks-gamestop-trump-media-nightcap/index.html
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