
China's equity market has been on a tear, with the Shanghai Composite Index surging 20% in the past year.
Investors are flocking to Chinese stocks, driven by the country's rapid economic growth and increasing globalization.
The Chinese government has been actively promoting the development of its capital markets, with the aim of making Shanghai a global financial hub.
China's equity market offers a unique blend of high-growth companies and undervalued assets, making it an attractive destination for investors.
The country's A-share market, which accounts for the majority of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, has seen significant gains in recent years.
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China Equity Market News
The China equity market has been on a roll, with a two-week rally driven by retail investors and passive buying. This surge has lifted many stocks, including Chinese digital broker and wealth management firm Futu Holdings, whose share price has jumped 114% to $110 YTD.
Futu Holdings' business model is naturally leveraged, meaning its earnings will accelerate exponentially as trading volumes increase. This is evident in the company's recent performance, with many new accounts opening, causing a significant boost in its share price.
JD.com, PDD Holdings, and Meituan are among the top 10 holdings in the Morningstar China Index, leading the charge with a total return over the last month of 56.58%, 55.26%, and 51.56% respectively.
JingSheng Mechanical, a manufacturer, and Sino Wealth, a consumer chip company, have also seen significant gains during the rally. JingSheng Mechanical has rallied sharply in the risk-on environment, while Sino Wealth makes basic chips for consumer electronics, which is expected to benefit from a potential consumer recovery.
Here are some of the top-performing stocks during the China bull run:
These stocks have benefited from the China bull run, with many investors optimistic about the country's recovery.
Market Analysis
The market is bracing for more volatility in China equity due to a pullback after strong market performance.
Nicolò Bragazza, an associate portfolio manager at Morningstar Investment Management, expects significant fluctuations in sentiment as investors await more clarity on future policies.
The rally was driven by a change in market sentiment following supportive measures, which was at very depressed levels.
Chinese equities barely moved during the equity sell-off in August, and their valuations were already very depressed.
The role of fiscal policy is crucial in supporting balance sheet recessions, especially when monetary policy may prove less effective without coordination.
A disappointing government response could lead to further pullback in Chinese equities.
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What Investors Want to See
Investors are eagerly awaiting more concrete actions from the Chinese government to support the economy.
Sharukh Malik, portfolio manager of the Bronze-Rated Guinness China A Share Fund, emphasizes the importance of prioritizing consumer support, which has been neglected in the past.
The government's recent trade program, worth $21 billion, is a step in the right direction, but Malik believes it needs to be significantly expanded.
Consumer confidence is low due to deflation and fragile sentiment, with 60% of China's population holding assets in housing, which has seen prices drop by 30-40% over the past 2-3 years.
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Jerry Wu, manager of Polar Capital China Stars Fund, believes tangible fiscal stimulus is needed to deal with deflation and fragile consumer sentiment.
The government has already taken some measures, such as issuing consumption vouchers and giving cash handouts, but these efforts are still relatively small in comparison to retail sales.
Malik suggests that the government could expand support by issuing sovereign bonds to raise capital for a larger trading program and "cash clunker schemes" to encourage the purchase of electric vehicles.
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Japan's Future
Japan's property market is struggling with yields of 20% still not enticing new buyers, mainly due to concerns about price weakness in the housing market.
People in Japan have lost confidence in the property market, with many believing prices can never go up, which is a very dangerous mindset.
The Japanese property market is a cautionary tale for China, where authorities need to act quickly to boost consumption and avoid following in Japan's footsteps.
In Japan, the prolonged period of price stagnation has led to a loss of confidence, making it difficult for the economy to recover on its own.
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Stock Market Watchlist
If you're looking to capitalize on the current China equity market rally, here are some stocks to keep an eye on. Futu Holdings, a Chinese digital broker and wealth management firm, has seen its share price jump 114% YTD to $110.
Their business model is leveraged, meaning earnings will accelerate exponentially as trading volumes surge. Sharukh Malik notes that many obscure names in his portfolio have been lifted in the rally, including JingSheng Mechanical, Sino Wealth, and Shenzhen Innovision Technology.
JingSheng Mechanical, a manufacturer, has been one of the weaker performers in the last twelve months but has rallied sharply in the risk-on environment. Sino Wealth makes basic chips for consumer electronics and battery charging applications, which could see a boost if consumers receive cash handouts.
Shenzhen Innovision Technology, an industrial automation equipment manufacturer, has seen its stock price jump 35% in the past five trading days. The idea is that downstream consumers will get a government subsidy to upgrade their equipment.
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The top 10 holdings in the Morningstar China Index have also seen a boost, with JD.com, PDD Holdings, and Meituan leading the charge with total returns of 56.58%, 55.26%, and 51.56% respectively.
Here are some key stocks to watch in the China equity market:
Sources
- https://www.scmp.com/topics/china-stock-market
- https://www.scmp.com/business/markets
- https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/chinese-investors-animal-spirits-return-as-stock-market-soars
- https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/256023/chinese-stocks-rally-then-plunge%E2%80%94what-happens-next.aspx
- https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8elgd52x4wo
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