
Capital One's acquisition of Discover Card will likely have a significant impact on consumers. The combined entity will have a massive customer base of over 100 million accounts.
The merger will give Capital One access to Discover's rewards program, which is known for its 5% cashback bonus on various categories. This could lead to more competitive rewards offerings for Capital One customers.
Consumers may see changes in the way they interact with their credit cards, potentially including new features and benefits. However, it's unclear at this point what specific changes will be made.
Impact of Acquisition
The Credit Card Competition Act is a law that would force more competition into the credit card industry to lower the fees merchants pay when shoppers swipe their credit cards.
Merchants like corner stores and hotels are charged interchange fees, also known as swipe fees, each time a consumer makes a purchase with a card.
These fees are the most important revenue driver for credit card companies, and card companies set them in exchange for consumers being able to use credit cards at those merchants.
The proposed merger between Capital One and Discover could potentially eliminate the need for tighter regulation, as a beefed-up Discover network would offer more competition for Visa and Mastercard.
Requiring credit card-issuing banks to offer at least two networks for merchants processing electronic credit card transactions would be a major change under the Credit Card Competition Act.
Competition and Fees
Merchants who accept credit cards may face higher fees as a result of the acquisition, as increased competition among networks could lead to higher interchange fees.
Increased competition among networks can actually be bad for merchants, as it's more about competing to keep issuers happy than keeping fees low for merchants.
Higher fees would be a negative for merchants, but the overall effects may be more ambiguous, reflecting the tension between new technology and traditional price competition.
What Does a Merger Mean for Credit Card Competition?
A merger between Capital One and Discover could potentially ramp up competition in the credit card industry.
Card networks like Visa and Mastercard might offer better terms to banks like Capital One to keep them issuing cards on their networks.
Capital One might be able to extract better deals from Visa and Mastercard if it issues cards on their networks as a bank.
This could lead to Visa and Mastercard paying larger interchange fees to banks that issue cards on their networks to stay ahead of Discover.
The proposed acquisition could induce Visa and Mastercard to offer higher interchange fees to banks like Capital One to keep their business.
For example, Visa might offer 2.1 percent interchange fees instead of 2 percent to keep Capital One issuing Visa cards.
This increased competition could potentially eliminate the need for tighter regulation in the credit card industry.
The Credit Card Competition Act aims to force more competition into the credit card industry by requiring banks to offer at least two networks for merchants processing electronic credit card transactions.
If a beefed-up Discover network is enough to increase competition, then the Credit Card Competition Act might not be necessary.
Merchants May Face Higher Fees
Larger interchange fees would be better for banks, but they could hurt the merchants who pay them, including small businesses.
Increased competition among networks may actually be bad for merchants because it's more about competing to make sure issuers want to use the cards, not that merchants pay low fees to accept them.
Higher fees would be a negative for merchants, but the overall effects may be more ambiguous, reflecting the tension between new technology and traditional price competition.
Merchants could benefit from increased access to sophisticated antifraud technology, like Capital One's, which could be built into the Discover payment-processing network.
The history of credit cards is the history of how to manage fraud, and with widespread ecommerce, verifying card holders is now much more difficult.
Capital One might persuade more merchants to purchase its antifraud software if its acquisition of Discover is approved, because it will have a larger consumer base providing more data to improve the technology.
Consumer Benefits
Discover cardholders could get more benefits from the merger with Capital One. This is because of a unique loophole in the credit-card industry that allows Discover to offer cash-back rewards on debit cards, unlike Visa and Mastercard.
The Durbin Amendment of 2010, part of the Dodd-Frank reforms, capped interchange fees on debit cards for large banks, making it unprofitable for banks to offer rewards on debit cards. However, this law only applies to open networks like Visa and Mastercard, not proprietary networks like Discover.
Capital One could potentially issue rewards debit cards through Discover, making it more attractive to new customers. This could lead to a situation where Capital One offers a Discover debit card with a 0.5 percent reward on all spending.
Consumers may gain access to Capital One's travel perks, which could be a significant benefit. However, this could also lead to higher consumer prices.
Regulatory Approval
Capital One's acquisition of Discover Card will need to meet strict regulatory requirements before it can be finalized. The Federal Reserve, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will all have a say in the matter.
The deal's approval will depend on whether it is deemed to be in the public interest. This assessment will be based on a thorough review of the potential impact on consumers and the overall financial system.
Capital One has a history of navigating complex regulatory landscapes, having acquired ING Groep's US banking operations in 2012.
Industry Consequences
The acquisition of Discover by Capital One will have significant consequences for the industry. The combined company will surpass longtime rivals JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. by U.S. credit-card loan volume.
This shift in market share will likely lead to increased competition among credit card companies, potentially driving down interest rates and fees for consumers. Capital One holders will own about 60% of the combined company.
The purchase of Discover is expected to generate pretax synergies of $2.7 billion, which could be used to invest in new products and services, or to reduce costs and improve profitability.
Merger Could Squeeze Credit Card Users
A merger between two major credit card companies could lead to higher fees and interest rates for consumers.
The merged company would have more bargaining power with merchants, allowing them to charge higher fees for transactions.
This could result in consumers paying more for everyday purchases, such as groceries and gas.
In 2020, credit card companies charged merchants an average of 1.5% per transaction.
The merged company might use this increased leverage to raise fees even higher.
Consumers would likely bear the brunt of these increased fees, making it more expensive to use credit cards.
Banking System Not at Risk
The banking system is not at risk, thanks to the nature of the proposed Capital One acquisition of Discover. This deal doesn't pose a threat to the stability of the overall banking system.
The card industry is not concentrated enough for the acquisition to result in a lack of consumer or merchant options. This is a key factor in regulators' decision to give the deal a close look.

The real risks to banks lie elsewhere, not in credit-card loans that went bad. Regional banking crises have shown that banks with thin capital and poor investments are the ones that struggle.
A merger of consumer-finance companies with low sensitivity to interest rates can't combine to make that kind of problem.
Frequently Asked Questions
What price is Capital One buying Discover?
Capital One is buying Discover Financial Services for $35.3 billion. This is Capital One's largest acquisition to date.
Sources
- https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/capital-one-discover-deal
- https://www.cbsnews.com/news/capital-one-discover-35-billion-credit-card-payments-giant/
- https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/credit-cards/advice/why-discover-cardholders-have-more-to-gain-from-merger-with-capital-one/
- https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2024-02-19/capital-one-discover-financial-35-billion-credit-card-company
- https://thepointsguy.com/news/capital-one-discover-merger/
- https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/capital-one-discover-merger-put-bigger-squeeze-credit-card-users-exper-rcna139554
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