Bitcoins Bottom: A 10-Year Analysis of Performance

Bitcoin's price has seen its fair share of ups and downs over the past decade. It reached an all-time high of $64,804 in April 2021, but then plummeted to $28,800 in June 2022.

The year 2011 was a pivotal one for Bitcoin, with its price increasing by 1,300% due to the rise of Silk Road. This online marketplace used Bitcoin as its primary currency, causing a surge in demand.

In 2017, Bitcoin's price rose by 1,300% again, reaching $19,666 in December. However, it then experienced a significant correction, dropping to $3,200 in December 2018.

The price of Bitcoin has been known to fluctuate wildly, with a single day's trading volume reaching $10 billion in 2017.

Bitcoin's price history is a wild ride. Bitcoin had a price of zero when it was introduced in 2009.

In 2010, its price jumped from $0.10 to $0.20 on October 26, and by the end of the year, it had reached $0.30. Here's a quick rundown of Bitcoin's price milestones:

By the end of 2013, Bitcoin's price had closed the year out at $732.

In 2009, Bitcoin was introduced with a price of zero. This was the starting point for the cryptocurrency's price journey.

Its price jumped from $0.10 to $0.20 on October 26, 2010, marking a significant increase.

By the end of 2010, the price had reached $0.30, showing steady growth.

In 2011, Bitcoin's price started growing past $1, reaching a peak of $29.60 on June 8, 2011.

However, a sharp recession in cryptocurrency markets followed, and the price dropped to around $5 by the end of the year.

The year 2012 was relatively uneventful, with the price increasing by a few dollars.

In 2013, Bitcoin's price witnessed strong gains, starting the year at $13 and crossing $100 by April.

Bitcoin was first introduced to the world in 2009, and its price has been a topic of interest ever since.

The first recorded price of Bitcoin was not publicly available, but we can look at historical data from reputable sources.

According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin's historical data shows that the price of Bitcoin in 2009 is not explicitly stated. However, we can look at other sources to get an idea of the price movement around that time.

One of the earliest recorded prices of Bitcoin was on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in 2017, but that's not relevant to 2009.

Bitcoin has seen a surge in its age consumed metric, signaling a shift in long-term holders' activity.

This surge in age consumed led to a 1% price increase for Bitcoin, but continued coin transfers may impact the price in the future.

If Bitcoin breaks above its 20-day EMA, it could surpass $60,000. Otherwise, it risks falling to $58,790.

Here's a summary of the key indicators:

The supply and demand of Bitcoin plays a huge role in its price fluctuations. By design, only 21 million Bitcoins will ever be created, which should keep increasing the value of Bitcoin over time as new coins become more scarce.

This scarcity is intended to put upward pressure on demand, which is why the closer Bitcoin gets to its limit, the higher its price should be. The last halving occurred on April 19, 2024, which slowed down the number of coins created.

Bitcoins are created by mining software and hardware at a specified rate, which splits in half every four years. If events unfold the same way they have in the past, Bitcoin's price can rise again.

However, if popularity wanes and demand falls, there will be more supply than demand, causing Bitcoin's price to drop. As seen in the past, regulatory activity can also cause market participants to take action, adjusting Bitcoin's price due to changes in supply and demand.

Speculation, investment product hype, and investor sentiment can also affect Bitcoin's price, causing demand to rise and fall. The approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC is a great example of this, where regulatory activity caused market participants to take action.

As a result, Bitcoin's price will adjust to reflect the changes in supply and demand, making it essential to stay informed about the market and its trends.

Bitcoin's price fluctuations are primarily driven by traders and investors who buy and sell aggressively in hopes of catching the next big move. This has led to a choppy and volatile trading history since its introduction.

Bitcoin has already lost more than 70% of its all-time high value, which suggests that the bottom may be in for the digital asset. This trend has been established over the years and points to the bottom being registered already.

If the trend holds, then the years 2023 through 2025 could see BTC outperforming the broader market once more. This would put the peak of the next bull market somewhere between 2024-2025 with at least double-digit growth expected for the digital asset through these years.

Q1 is expected to be "soft" according to the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP), with a possible 20% loss. This has already been seen with a pullback of 18% from the peak of $49,054 on January 11.

Bitcoin's price is a product of supply, demand, and market sentiment. This means that investors' enthusiasm and the demand and supply dynamics in the market play a significant role in determining the price of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has had a choppy and volatile trading history since its introduction, which can make it challenging to predict its price movements.

The price changes for Bitcoin generally reflect investor enthusiasm, as well as the demand and supply dynamics in the market. This is why it's essential to select a reliable cryptocurrency exchange if you're thinking of investing in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's price fluctuations are primarily driven by traders and investors who buy and sell aggressively in hopes of catching the next big move. This can lead to significant price swings, making it crucial to stay informed and adapt to changing market conditions.

The trend suggests that the bottom for Bitcoin may already be in, with a potential peak in the next bull market somewhere between 2024-2025. This could lead to double-digit growth for the digital asset through these years.

Here are some key factors to consider when analyzing the market:

Corrections always move in three waves, labeled as "a-b-c." This means that a correction's first leg, W-a, typically reaches the 38.20% retracement of the previous same-degree impulsive advance.

The 38.2% retracement for green W-1 is at $39790. This is a significant level to watch, as it could indicate the end of the first leg of the correction.

A "dead cat bounce", the grey W-b, typically retraces 50-76.40% of the W-a. In this case, that would mean $45.5 +/- 1.5K. This is a crucial level to watch, as it could signal the end of the second leg of the correction.

C-waves, like W-c, are often fast and furious and relate to the previous W-a as 1x a to 1.618x a. This means that W-c could reach $38.5+/-1.5K, which matches the aforementioned W-2 target zone of $37.5+/-2.5K.

Each higher "warning level" increases the odds that grey W-b is underway. If BTC's price moves above the red dotted line, the January 11 high, it tells us that the W-3 is likely already underway.

Assuming W-2 bottoms at around $38K, we can calculate W-3 to reach ideally: $38K + 1.618 x $24K = $76.8K. This is a significant target to watch, as it could indicate the end of the correction and the start of a new bull run.

The Soft Quarter is a period of market behavior where Bitcoin struggles for a few months after transitioning into its Mid-Bull phase.

Historically, each time this phase transition happened, Bitcoin topped around January +/-1 month and bottomed around February +/-1 month, with an average loss of around 20 +/- 5%.

As of January 11, Bitcoin peaked at $49,054 and has since experienced an 18% pullback, the largest since the rally from the September 2023 low started.

This pullback is a strong indication that the green W-2 to ideally $37,000 +/-2.5K is underway, which is in line with our Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) count.

Q1 is indeed weak so far, as all gains made since December 4 have now been erased.

The EWP count has been refined to account for all waves since the low in December 2023.