Bitcoin Halving 2024 Prediction: Expert Insights and Market Analysis

Bitcoin's halving event is a significant occurrence that happens approximately every four years, where the block reward for miners is cut in half. This event has historically led to a surge in Bitcoin's price.

Historically, the price of Bitcoin has increased by an average of 1,000% in the year leading up to the halving event. The 2024 halving event is expected to be no exception, with many experts predicting a significant price increase.

The last halving event in 2020 saw the price of Bitcoin increase from around $7,000 to over $64,000, a staggering 800% increase. This trend suggests that the 2024 halving event could lead to a similar price surge.

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Halving is a preordained event encoded into the very core of Bitcoin.

It occurs every fourth year, or, to be more precise, every 210,000 blocks being created. At the time of writing, that looks likely to happen around midnight on April 20, UK time.

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The halving event, sometimes referred to as “the halvening”, is essentially the opposite of quantitative easing – so much so that some crypto enthusiasts refer to it as quantitative hardening.

It takes place roughly once every four years whenever 210,000 blocks have been mined, and is predicted to take place on 19 April. This halving will see mining rewards fall from 6.25 bitcoins per block, to 3.125 bitcoins.

Bitcoin was developed as an antidote to the perceived flaws in the established financial system, which had contributed to the global crisis of 2007-2008. By cutting the supply, the halving event is designed to ensure the scarcity of bitcoin while preventing extreme price inflation.

Bitcoin halvings are significant for traders because they reduce the rate at which new bitcoins are introduced into circulation, effectively limiting the supply of new coins.

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The impact of halving on Bitcoin price is a topic of much interest and debate. Halving events have historically led to sharp price increases and severe market volatility for Bitcoin.

Previous halvings have seen Bitcoin's price shoot up by 80 times, 300 per cent, and 600 per cent respectively. The simplest explanation for these price increases is the basic economic principle of supply and demand: if the supply suddenly drops but demand stays the same, the price will inevitably rise.

Data from previous halvings shows that Bitcoin's price has tended to appreciate in the months leading up to and following a halving. The table below illustrates this trend:

The upcoming halving in 2024 is expected to have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price. Analysts predict that Bitcoin's scarcity will only increase with the halving, coupled with persistent institutional adoption, which will drive Bitcoin to new and unprecedented price milestones.

Bitcoin's price has already surged to highs not seen since 2021, following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the US Federal Reserve's plans to ease monetary policy. The demand side is certainly impacted by these ETFs, which are absorbing the extra supply that miners might be putting on the marketplace.

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The halving event, also known as the "halvening", is the opposite of quantitative easing, and is essentially a hard-coded event into Bitcoin's underlying blockchain.

It takes place roughly once every four years, or when 210,000 blocks have been mined, and is designed to ensure the scarcity of Bitcoin while preventing extreme price inflation. This event is not determined or governed by a centralised body, but rather is a preordained event encoded into the core of Bitcoin.

The halving cuts the production of Bitcoin in half, so mining rewards fall from 6.25 bitcoins per block to 3.125 bitcoins.

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A Bitcoin halving is an event where the reward for mining new blocks on the Bitcoin network is cut in half. This means that miners receive 50% fewer bitcoins for validating transactions and adding them to the blockchain.

Halvings occur approximately every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years. This schedule is designed to limit the supply of new coins.

The total supply of 21 million bitcoins is the ultimate goal of the halving schedule. This means that eventually, no new bitcoins will be introduced into circulation.

Each halving reduces the rate at which new bitcoins are introduced into circulation, effectively limiting the supply of new coins.

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Bitcoin's halving has significant implications for its mining activity and supply, but what happened this time is a bit different from previous cycles. Market participants had already priced in the effect of the halving, making a profit from it before it even happened.

One reason for this is that investors had known the date of the halving for four years, giving them plenty of advance notice. This makes sense if you believe in the efficient market hypothesis.

The introduction of new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January also sped up the timeline for Bitcoin price appreciation. Bitcoin typically hits a new all-time high after the halving, but this time it peaked too early due to the influx of new investor money.

Historically, the hash rate has risen leading up to halving events, only to drop off in the weeks after as inefficient miners are weeded out. This time was no exception, with hash rates driven by large mining companies introducing new, faster machines.

The halving itself has already occurred, but its full impact may not be seen for up to a year. Take a look at the phenomenal returns attributed to the first three Bitcoin halving cycles, which required 300 days or more to generate.

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The next halving is expected to be the most highly anticipated yet, given the recent surge in market activity brought on by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Historically, the price of Bitcoin has tended to appreciate in the months leading up to and following a halving, though each event has unique circumstances, and demand for Bitcoin can be volatile.

The halving is scheduled to occur approximately every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years, until the total supply of 21 million bitcoins is reached.

Large mining companies have already been making moves to upgrade their equipment in anticipation of the halving, introducing new, faster, and more efficient machines while still utilizing older machines that may become obsolete in a few months.

Miners may be in better shape in 2024 due to reduced debt, larger scale of operations, and equity finance options, which could lead to a more stable supply of Bitcoin.

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The demand side is certainly impacted by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which has led to a surge in demand for Bitcoin, potentially offsetting the sell pressure from miners upgrading their equipment.

Estimates suggest that mining 1 Bitcoin will cost approximately US$37,856 after the halving, which could lead to a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin.

The retail FOMO that comes in after the halving could drive the price to some incredible levels, with estimates ranging from US$75,000 to US$150,000 in the next 12 to 18 months.

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