The Argentine peso has been struggling to maintain its value, and it's essential to understand the reasons behind this decline. High inflation rates have been a significant contributor to the peso's devaluation.
In 2020, Argentina's inflation rate reached 36.1%, one of the highest in the world. This made it difficult for people to afford basic necessities, leading to a decrease in the peso's value.
The economic crisis in Argentina has also led to a shortage of foreign currency, making it hard for the country to import goods and services. This has further exacerbated the peso's decline.
As a result, the peso has lost around 70% of its value against the US dollar since 2018, making it one of the worst-performing currencies in the world.
Peso Value and Performance
The Argentine peso has been on a wild ride in recent years. In 2018, it halved in value due to an economic crisis, and by 2020, it had risen to 100 pesos per 1 USD.
The peso's value has continued to decline, with a 16% drop against the USD so far in 2023. As of April 4, the USD/ARS rate was 210.00. Economists are not optimistic about the currency's future performance.
Wells Fargo expects the Argentine peso to suffer a substantial depreciation in 2023, and the IMF has described the measures taken by the new government as "bold" and "helpful" in stabilizing the economy.
Here's a brief summary of the peso's value over the past few years:
What Drives the Argentine Peso's Value?
The Argentine peso's value is influenced by inflation in the country, which is surging out of control. This has led to the peso tumbling in value against other currencies like the US dollar.
Inflation and economic crisis are key drivers of the peso's value. The country's economic downturn, which has lasted for decades, has resulted in mounting debts, multiple recessions, devaluations, and hyperinflation.
Argentina's economic crisis is a result of political uncertainty, poor monetary policy, and external headwinds. The country's economy has changed dramatically over the past century, going from being one of the wealthiest in the southern hemisphere to suffering a prolonged economic downturn.
The Argentine peso is a floating currency, meaning its value is determined by market forces rather than a fixed exchange rate. This system replaced the fixed exchange rate of 1 USD to 1 ARS, which expired in 2001.
Argentine Peso Year-to-Date Performance
The Argentine peso has had a tough start to the year, falling by 16% against the USD so far in 2023.
As of 4 April, the USD/ARS rate stands at 210.00, a significant increase from the start of January when it was at 178.00.
The Argentine government has announced plans to ease fears of a default on its $35bn of local debt by allowing investors to exchange holdings into new bonds.
Economists are not optimistic about the currency's future performance, with Wells Fargo predicting a substantial depreciation in 2023.
In fact, the peso's performance has been bleak for some time, with a 100% rise in just two years between 2020 and 2021.
The peso's value has been steadily climbing, reaching 176.00 by the end of December 2022, up from just over 100 pesos per 1 USD at the start of the year.
Analysts' Views
Analysts at BBVA Research forecast that the USD/ARS will rise to 154 in 2022.
Analysts' predictions can be helpful, but it's essential to remember that past performance does not guarantee future returns.
The forecast suggests that the USD/ARS rate will reach 222.00 in 2023.
It's crucial to conduct your due diligence before trading by looking at the latest news, technical and fundamental analysis, and analyst commentary.
Analysts' views should not be taken as investment advice, and it's always a good idea to consider multiple sources before making a decision.
Peso Decline and Economic Factors
The Argentine peso has been on a downward spiral, with a 16% decline against the USD so far in 2023. This has been a steady climb, with the USD/ARS rate rising to 178.00 at the start of January and now sitting at 210.00 as of 4 April.
Economists are not optimistic about the currency's future performance, with Wells Fargo expecting a substantial depreciation in 2023. The Argentine government's attempt to ease fears of a default on its $35bn of local debt by allowing investors to exchange holdings into new bonds may not be enough to stem the tide.
Inflation in Argentina has risen to a 20-year high of over 70% year on year in September, and it's not showing any signs of slowing down. The Argentine central bank has hiked its interest rates by 300 basis points to 78% in March, but this has not had the desired effect.
The main drivers of the peso's decline are inflation and the ongoing economic crisis, which have led to a prolonged economic downturn, mounting debts, multiple recessions, devaluations, and hyperinflation. The country's poor monetary policy and external headwinds have also contributed to its economic woes.
Here are some key statistics on the peso's decline:
What's Driven the Peso Lower?
The Argentine peso has taken a significant hit in value, and it's essential to understand what's driving this decline. Inflation in Argentina has risen to a 20-year high of over 70% year on year in September, with a sharp hike in interest rates by 300 basis points to 78% in March, in an attempt to rein in surging prices.
The country's economic crisis is a major contributor to the peso's woes, with a prolonged economic downturn, mounting debts, multiple recessions, devaluations, and hyperinflation. Over the space of less than 100 years, Argentina has gone from being one of the world's wealthiest southern hemisphere countries to suffering a severe economic downturn.
The government's inability to agree on a long-term plan for the economy is adding to the currency's woes, creating uncertainty and instability. In an attempt to address the crisis, the new government devalued the peso by more than 50% as part of a package of large-scale spending cuts.
Here are the key drivers of the peso's decline:
- Inflation: 20-year high of over 70% year on year in September
- Interest rate hike: 300 basis points to 78% in March
- Economic crisis: prolonged economic downturn, mounting debts, multiple recessions, devaluations, and hyperinflation
- Government inaction: inability to agree on a long-term plan for the economy
- Currency devaluation: over 50% devaluation as part of a package of large-scale spending cuts
The peso's decline has significant implications for the country's economy and its people, with many struggling to make ends meet due to soaring inflation and a deep fiscal deficit.
Reserves
Argentina's reserves have taken a hit, with a significant drop in net cash reserves to around $2.1bn as of mid-August.
The country's total reserves are now about 50% of what they were three years ago, which is a worrying sign.
The IMF has lowered Argentina's net reserves accumulation target for the end of 2023 to $8bn, a decrease from the previous target of $9.8bn.
This move is likely a response to the government's strained finances, and the IMF hopes the central bank will still have at least $10.3bn of net reserves by the end of December.
Argentina's unofficial exchange rate, known as the "dólar blue", is a major concern, as it offers customers higher peso rates on the street, potentially exacerbating the situation.
The "blue market" is run by money dealers on the streets, who give better rates for foreign currency, making it a tempting option for those looking to exchange dollars for pesos.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the forecast for the Argentine peso?
The forecast for the Argentine peso is expected to reach 1043.95 by the end of the quarter and 1124.90 in 12 months. According to Trading Economics, these estimates are based on global macro models and analysts' expectations.
Is Argentina going to dollarize?
Argentina's dollarization plans seem to be on hold, but the country lacks the $30 billion needed to back its currency with dollars.
Sources
- https://capital.com/argentine-peso-forecast-ars
- https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/12/economy/argentina-milei-peso-dollar/index.html
- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/13/argentina-new-government-devalues-peso-economic-crisis
- https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2014/jan/24/argentina-peso-devaluation-blue-dollar-tourism
- https://www.todayonline.com/world/argentina-peso-devalued-over-50per-cent-markets-welcome-mileis-tough-pill-2324956
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