Amazon Is a Growth Company with a Long-Term Outlook for Unstoppable Success

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Amazon's revenue has grown from $48.58 billion in 2011 to $386.06 billion in 2020, a staggering increase of 693%.

This kind of growth is a testament to Amazon's ability to adapt and innovate, consistently delivering value to its customers and investors.

Amazon's focus on customer obsession has led to the development of new services such as Prime Video, which has become a major player in the streaming market.

With a market value of over $1 trillion, Amazon is one of the largest and most successful companies in the world.

Amazon's long-term outlook is built on its ability to innovate and take calculated risks, as seen in its early adoption of cloud computing with Amazon Web Services (AWS).

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Growth and Momentum

Amazon is a growth company with a long-term outlook. Its e-commerce business is still its core, providing the engine it needs to run the total business and invest in all its segments.

Amazon has been restructuring its logistics network, switching from a national to a regional one, which has led to faster deliveries and lower fulfillment costs. This change has improved its ability to move inventory throughout its regional distribution centers by 25% in the third quarter.

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The company is also working on improving its inbound inventory chain, making sure that regional warehouses have products on hand, and has opened more same-day fulfillment centers in the quarter. This has resulted in same-day deliveries being sent to over 40 million customers, a 25% increase year over year.

AWS, Amazon's cloud computing infrastructure business, reported strong performance in Q1 2024, with a 16.8% increase in sales growth. This is expected to continue, as tech researcher Gartner predicts cloud end-user spending will be up more than 20% from 2023 to nearly $680 billion worldwide.

Amazon's revenue is forecast to grow faster than the US market, at 9.1% per year, according to analyst future growth forecasts. This, combined with its strong e-commerce business and improving logistics, makes Amazon a prime candidate for long-term growth.

Here's a breakdown of Amazon's segment performance in Q1 2024:

Amazon's stock has jumped after earnings and is up 30% this year, with a consensus among Wall Street analysts predicting $60 billion in free cash flow for 2024. This could make Amazon one of the best "Magnificent Seven" stocks to buy right now.

Future Outlook

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Amazon has a diverse revenue stream, with a long-term growth profile that should bode well for investors. This is evident in the company's revenue growth, which has consistently increased over the years.

According to the forecasted earnings and revenue growth data, Amazon's revenue is expected to reach $847,054 by 2027, with an average number of analysts estimating this figure. This represents a significant increase from the $574,785 revenue reported in 2023.

The company's free cash flow is also expected to grow, reaching $110,656 by 2027. This indicates that Amazon's business is generating more cash than it's consuming, which is a good sign for investors.

Generative AI Revolution

Amazon is leading the generative AI revolution, and it's not just a trend - it's a game-changer. The company's AI capabilities have unlocked incredible ways for businesses to work faster and more cost-effectively, with services they couldn't have imagined a few short years ago.

Generative AI has a massive potential, and Amazon is just getting started. CEO Andy Jassy thinks it's going to flip the market, with 90% of company information technology spend still not on the cloud. He's right - the cloud is growing fast, and companies are realizing they need to be on the cloud to make the most effective use of generative AI solutions.

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AWS sales accelerated to a 19% increase in the third quarter, and the generative AI business is growing at triple-digit rates. It's outperforming where AWS was at this phase of development, reaching a multi-billion-dollar run rate. The potential is really massive, and in five years from now, it could be accelerating as more clients join AWS and existing clients expand their relationships.

Amazon is capitalizing on AI opportunities, and its capex spending in this area is a good sign for future growth. The company is seeing strong demand signals from customers, longer deals, and larger commitments, many with generative AI components. This is a positive sign of future growth, as the more demand AWS has, the more it needs to procure new data centers, power, and hardware.

A Bright Future

Amazon's future looks bright, with a strong focus on AI integrations in its core businesses and product lines. The company's diverse revenue streams, long-term growth profile, and increasing focus on efficiency should bode well for investors long-term.

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Amazon is capitalizing on AI opportunities, with a substantial number of companies building generative AI apps in AWS, including Adidas, Booking.com, and United Airlines. The AWS team has a lot of new capabilities to share with its customers at its upcoming AWSre:Invent conference.

The company's capex spending in AI is a good sign for future growth, with a meaningful increase in year-over-year capital expenditures in 2024 expected due to high demand for generative AI. This is a positive sign that Amazon is investing in its future.

Amazon's CFO, Brian Olsavsky, has mentioned that the company is seeing strong AWS demand in both generative AI and non-generative AI workloads, with customers signing up for longer deals and making bigger commitments. This is a good indication that Amazon's investments in AI are paying off.

The company's focus on efficiency should also help Amazon stay ahead of the curve in the rapidly changing AI landscape. With a strong cloud presence and a focus on innovation, Amazon is well-positioned for long-term growth.

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Financial Performance

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Amazon's financial performance is a testament to its growth and long-term outlook. The company has consistently focused on optimizing free cash flows, which is a good sign, especially in the current market environment where interest rates have risen.

Free cash flow has been on the rise, indicating a healthy company that can fund its own growth in any market environment. This is particularly important as Amazon continues to invest in innovation and expansion.

Amazon's forecast earnings growth is 17.2% per year, which is above the savings rate of 2.8%. This suggests that the company's earnings are expected to grow faster than the average savings rate.

The company's earnings are forecast to grow faster than the US market, with a growth rate of 17.2% per year compared to the market's growth rate of 14.5% per year. This indicates that Amazon's earnings are expected to outpace the broader market.

Here are some key financial metrics for Amazon:

Revenue growth is also expected to outpace the US market, with a growth rate of 9.1% per year compared to the market's growth rate of 8.8% per year. This suggests that Amazon's revenue is expected to continue growing at a faster rate than the broader market.

Valuation and Management

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Amazon's valuation story is one to watch, especially considering its impressive operating leverage in 2023. Operating income skyrocketed from $4.8 billion to $15.3 billion, a 219% increase.

This significant jump in operating income is a testament to the company's ability to manage expenses effectively, leading to higher profits. Amazon's Free Cash Flow (FCF) has also seen a substantial increase, reaching $50.1 billion on a trailing 12-month basis ending in March 2024.

Amazon's management team, led by Jassy, is confident in the company's ability to continue delivering high-profit performance, with operating income expected to be up as much as 82% in Q2.

Amazon's Valuation

Amazon's valuation is impressive, with the highest rating from Wall Street analysts and the most price upside versus analyst targets.

The company has an attractive 11% expected revenue growth rate for this fiscal year and next, which is a significant advantage.

Amazon's expected earnings per share (EPS) growth rate for the next five years is particularly noteworthy, with a projected increase that could be driven by the company's high economies of scale and operating leverage.

Free cash flow is on the rise, providing a solid foundation for Amazon's future growth.

With a low net profit margin, Amazon has more room for EPS growth than other stocks in the Mag 7 group, with the exception of Nvidia and maybe Meta.

Big Payoff from Disciplined Expense Management

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Amazon's disciplined expense management is paying off big time. The company's operating income jumped from $4.8 billion to $15.3 billion in a single year.

This dramatic increase in operating income is a testament to Amazon's ability to manage its expenses effectively. Revenue was up 13% to $143 billion, but it's the operating income that's truly impressive.

Amazon's free cash flow (FCF) has also seen a significant boost, reaching $50.1 billion on a trailing 12-month basis ending in March 2024. This exceeds the author's initial estimate of $50 billion for the full year 2024.

The company's Q2 performance is expected to continue this trend, with operating income potentially reaching $14 billion, an 82% increase from the previous year.

Amazon's 4 Big

Amazon's growth is driven by four key factors, which are set to propel the company forward in the coming years. One of these factors is the company's e-commerce dominance, which has been a major driver of growth for Amazon.

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Amazon's e-commerce business is a significant contributor to its overall growth, accounting for a substantial portion of the company's revenue. This is due in part to the company's ability to offer a wide selection of products at competitive prices, making it a go-to destination for online shoppers.

Another key factor driving Amazon's growth is its expanding cloud computing business, Amazon Web Services (AWS). AWS has been a major source of growth for the company, with revenue increasing significantly in recent years.

The success of AWS can be attributed to its ability to provide a robust and secure platform for businesses to store and process their data. This has made AWS a popular choice for companies looking to move their operations to the cloud.

Amazon's growing presence in the physical retail space is also a key driver of growth for the company. This includes its acquisition of Whole Foods Market and its expansion into new markets through its Amazon Go convenience stores.

The acquisition of Whole Foods Market has given Amazon a foothold in the physical retail space, allowing it to offer a more comprehensive shopping experience to customers.

Amazon: Buy the Dip

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Amazon is a growth company with a long-term outlook, and one key indicator of this is its capital expenditures (CapEx) spending on artificial intelligence (AI). The company is investing heavily in AI, with a substantial and growing number of companies building generative AI apps in AWS, including Adidas, Booking.com, and United Airlines.

This is a good sign for Amazon's future growth, as AI is expected to have a profound impact on the economy. Amazon's CFO, Brian Olsavsky, expects the company's CapEx spending to increase in 2024, driven by strong demand for generative AI and other cloud services.

The company's focus on AI is evident in its recent launch of a new generative AI tool that enables sellers to create high-quality product detail pages on Amazon. Already, over 100,000 of Amazon's selling partners have used one or more of its GenAI tools.

As a result of this growing demand, Amazon's CapEx spending in 2024 is expected to be significantly higher than in previous years. In Q1, the company spent $14 billion on CapEx, but this is expected to be the low quarter for the year.

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The company's confidence in its expansion of capital in this area is evident in its decision to invest in new data centers, power, and hardware to support its growing cloud business. This is a positive sign for investors, as it suggests that Amazon is committed to driving growth and innovation in the long term.

Amazon's Strengths

Amazon has the highest rating among the Mag 7 stocks by Wall Street analysts. Its price upside versus analyst targets is also the highest in the group.

With an attractive 11% expected revenue growth rate for this fiscal year and next, Amazon is a growth company with a strong track record. This growth rate is a testament to the company's ability to innovate and adapt to changing market conditions.

Amazon's expected earnings per share ("EPS") growth rate for the next five years is particularly impressive, with the company likely having more room for EPS growth than other Mag 7 stocks. This is due to its high economies of scale and operating leverage, which will drive earnings dramatically higher in the years ahead.

Free cash flow is on the rise for Amazon, providing a solid foundation for future growth and profitability. This, combined with its operating leverage, makes a strong case for Amazon's long-term success.

Sheldon Kuphal

Writer

Sheldon Kuphal is a seasoned writer with a keen insight into the world of high net worth individuals and their financial endeavors. With a strong background in researching and analyzing complex financial topics, Sheldon has established himself as a trusted voice in the industry. His areas of expertise include Family Offices, Investment Management, and Private Wealth Management, where he has written extensively on the latest trends, strategies, and best practices.

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